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Forest/Vegetation Mapping
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Integration of Geographic Information System and Area Production
Model (Apm) In the Prediction of Forest Degradation
at Phrao District, Thai Land
Methodology
The research method shall be based on five main steps. The outline of the general methodology is shown in Figure 1. These five steps are:
Figure 1. the general research methodology.
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Mapping the land use/covers for different years (1975-1995) . These maps will be produced from satellite images, aerial photographs and/or ortho-photos. Existing forest cover maps will be gathered from relevant offices during the field work. Base on the multi-temporal land cover land use maps, the trend of deforestation and forest degradation will be assessed.
- Simulating of agricultural development using APM. Data required to run the APM will be gathered during the fieldwork. Results of APM simulation will be analyzed and interpreted.
- Regression analysis between agricultural expansion and deforestation will be achieved. The results of steps A and B will be compared. Correlation and regression analysis will be conducted in order to calibrate the model's prediction of expansion of agricultural land with the decreasing trend of forest. The regression model will be the basis of developing a spatial model to predict forest degradation.
- Analysis of factors affecting deforestation. Environmental factors such as soil type and fertility, slope topography, topography, aspect, etc., as well as accessibility factors and population and market concentrations will be analyze in relation to the spatial concentration of deforestation in the study area through GIS operations.
- Development of spatial model to predict forest degradation. The results of steps 3 and 4 will be combined as input to develop a spatial model to predict future location of forest degradation.
Results
Because the authors just came back from the field work and still running the analysis, given the due date of submitting this manuscript, it was difficult to present results in this paper. However, hopefully during the conference, the authors will presents the results and a handouts to the conference attenders.
Reference
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CERNEA, M.M. 1993. "Strategy options for participatory reforestation. development dialogue". Vol 14, No. 2: UN Centre for Regional Development, Nagoya, Japan.
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De Gier A. and Y. A. Hussion. 1993. "Spatially Resolved Area Production Model in Kali Konto, Indonesia Minneapolis, Minn., USA. Vol 1.
157-169pp.
- De Gier, A., Bode J. and Y.A. Hussin. 1993. "Spatially Resolved Area Production Modal in Kali Konto, Indonesia". GIS/LIS '93 proceedings. 31 October-4 November, 1993 Minneapolis, Minn., USA. Vol 1. 157-169 pp.
- De Gier, A., Bode J. and Y. A. Hussin. 1995. " Simulating forest degradation: the application of a Gis -based area production model in Kali Kanto, East Java, Indonesia." Proceedings 16th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing, Suranaree University of Technology, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand, 20-24 November 1995. (In press) .
- Hussin,Y.A., A. de Gier, and Hargyono. 1994. "Forest covet change detection analysis using remote sensing: A Test for the spatially resolved area production model". Fifth European Conference and Exhibition on Geographic Information Systems EGIS '94 Proceedings. Paris, France. Vol. II, 1825 - 1834 pp.
- SHIMADA,T.1986. "APM case study: East Java Province, Indonesia. Manual for Using the Area Production Model. Field Document 12:2. FAO, Bangkok. 99pp.
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