Therotic Foundation of Dynavic (Reasonance) Earthquake Model
1. Trigger Mechanisms Of SED, Reason Of Group A.
In group A we have established correlation between growth and development of the Sun spots-SS on the Sun surfase, the Suncycles and activity and emergence of resonance situation which can cause earthquakes and other natural calamities. Activity of SS, which are kind of craters occurring in the result of plasma substance revolution, plays great role in the mechanism of seismic waves excitation in the system of Sun-Earth relations. In the result of SS revolution seismic waves are focused and the so called Rossby vortices are born. SS act as resonators, exciters and generators of seismic waves [7,9,11].
In the result of coincidence of SS and Earth revolution aces, i.e., these axes become parallel, (Rossby vortices, solitons) seismic waves are intensified and transmitted from the Sun to the Earth through the space medium (the cosmic plasma) due to the so called spin effect. The spin effect can be described as follows: two revolving systems, or spins behave as particles with opposite charges and when coming closer they move apart. Provided that the revolution axes are parallel the spin effect generates cyclones in the atmosphere, and when axes are perpendicular-anti cyclones [7-12]. This is how intensification of the Sun activity and increase of the spots (craters of the plasma clots) revolution speed, in its turn, intensifies seismic excitation of the Earth. To give mathematical description of the seismic waves excitation mechanisms we shall use the model of soliton solution [8-10].
Resonance situation-RS will realize into a calamity of certain type caused by reasons listed in group A only provided that trigger mechanism is put into operation. Precursors of calamities, which forestall and foretoken calamities, are born in the time interval RS-RC. This demands coincidence of 4 independent factors [1-7].
- Sun flashes twisting of magnetic lines of force in Sun spots, generation of shock waves.
- focusing of seismic waves in the Sun spots within 1-10 Hz range;
- coincidence of spots revolution axis with the axis of the Earth revolution, namely, when these axes become parallel (threat of spin effect emergences),
- breakthrough of focused seismic ray through holes and their interaction with IF we accept the summary event probability as a unit, probability of each independent earthquakes seismic focuses.
event is one quarter or 25%. Subsequently, summary probability of simultaneous coincidence and operation of all factors-P equals the product of each of them, or:
P = A*B*C*D = (0.25)4 (1)
Under condition (4) the excitation trigger mechanism-ETM grows into resonance situation RS, with ETM moving towards some ultimate (critical) limit E crit., or%
ETM-RS with TME-E crit (2)
Realization of resonance situation-RS into a concrete calamity- CR is determined by appearing of bifurcation (peculiarity) in the calamity function. According to the theory of calamities [11], this function equals the sum of 2 functions:
C(l,k) = CG (l) + Pert (l, k)
With C(l, k)= - calamity function
CG (1) - function of calamity growth
Pert (l,k) - function of the calamity perturbance.
So under conditions (1,2,3) ETM aims towards RS, with RS aiming to E crit. RS aims towards RC with ETM equal E crit. Mathematical it can be expressed as:
ETM-RS-RC with ETM = E crit (4)
Besides, these "classical" scenario of earthquake dynamic model with SEP taken into consideration designed by us [1-7], there are at least 2 other trigger mechanisms caused by reasons of groups B and T.
II. Trigger Mechanism of Reasons of Group B
This group of reasons is connected with anthropogenic activities and various mechanisms creating extreme strains in the Earth crust. These strains, in their turn, provoke earthquakes. Trigger mechanism of such calamities is connected wit accumulation of strains in the Earth crust and sudden release of this energy at the strained areas of the earth crust. Process of strains accumulation, especially in the water environment, promotes emergence of soliton wave and its sudden dissipation when is realized into a calamity. In water environment (sea, ocean) this wave provokes tsunami (sea shock). Trigger mechanism of this phenomenon is very complicated and not studied enough. Regardless of this, general method of transition after diagram (4) suggested by us [25, 32, 33] ETM -RS -CR can be successfully applied under condition of through study of trigger excitation of strains in the Earth crust and emergence of precursors connected with antropogenic activities.
III. Trigger Mechanism of Reasons of Group T.
This group is related to delicate process of quantum mechanical character taking place in the cosmic space in the Earth-Sun with trigger mechanism or small (inter-plan) magnetic-ESMF leading to excitation of the seismic waves in the 0.1-0.001 and less Hz frequency range. These ESMF have a number of specific features-they act within wide range of 10 minus 12 to 17 Gauss range. Trigger mechanism of these fields provoke the so called quiet earthquakes.
One of such scenarios seems to cause the so called D-waves which propagate in the Earth crust at a speed of 16.6 km per year. When meeting a tectonic fault these waves self-excite, cause resonance situation and can provoke an earthquake. In non-seismic regions these wave provoke big accidents at industrial facilities. For ex., it has been found out that this trigger mechanism of weak magnetic fields excitation provoked accident at the Chernobyl atomic power station. The accident occurred because trigger mechanism caused displacement of geological plates, which, in its turn6 caused rapture of the pipeline at the atomic station, promoted violation of its operation and the accident [13, 123]. This type of earthquake can be provoked by excessive pressure in the ionosphere which is connected with antropogenic activities (subsurface nuclear explosions, rocket launching), as well as with natural phenomena-emergence of zones with excessive pressure in the ionosphere, impact of weak IMF, etc….
