Simulation of Forest Cover Map for 2025 and Beyond
using Remote Sensing and GIS
Predictions for Population and Forest Loss in 2025
Using the UN medium variant long range population projections, the correlation model was then used to make predictions for the forest loss for the future. The results of such a prediction based on the latest population predictions by the United nations (UN 1997) are summarized in Table 2.
Table 2: Prediction for forest loss until 2025 using UN population projection
| Population scenario |
| |
Population (million) |
| |
1990 |
2025 |
%gain |
annual rate |
| Tropical Asia |
1559 |
2650 |
70 |
1.527 |
| Tropical Latin America |
244 |
382 |
56.6 |
1.288 |
| Tropical Africa |
273 |
683 |
150 |
2.655 |
| Trop. Center America/Mexico |
135 |
217 |
60.7 |
1.372 |
| Total tropical |
2211 |
3953 |
78.79 |
1.674 |
| Sahelian Africa |
1278 |
326 |
156-7 |
2.73 |
| Europe (incl former USSR) |
761.7 |
761.8 |
0 |
0 |
| Forest scenario by regions |
| |
Area('000ha) |
| |
1990 |
2025 |
% loss |
annual rate |
| Tropical Asia |
294589 |
231931 |
21.27 |
0.68 |
| Tropical Latin America |
810831 |
685416 |
15.47 |
0.48 |
| Tropical Africa |
371006 |
255255 |
32.0 |
1.06 |
| Trop. Center America/Mexico |
79002 |
62802 |
20.50 |
0.65 |
| Total tropical |
1555428 |
1235404 |
20.57 |
0.66 |
| Sahelian Africa |
94663 |
66622 |
29.62 |
1.00 |
| Europe |
932355 |
929839 |
0.26 |
0.007 |
| Global forest loss |
| |
1990 |
2025 |
Change |
% of 1990 |
| Forest |
33.2% |
29.8% |
-3.4% |
-10.2% |
| Grassland* |
34.7% |
48.1% |
+3.4% |
+9.80% |
| *Under the assumption that forest will change to grassland or agriculture |
These predictions show that the deforestation is likely to continue at a very significant rate, especially in the developing countries. Among the countires in different groups, it is predicted that deforestation will be most severe in Africa, where is a predicted that more than 30% of the forests in 1990 will be lost by 2025, which corresponds to an annual deforestation rate of 1.06%. It can be noted that this is also the region where the population is likely to increase most rapidly. While most other regions will see some slowing in the speed of population growth compared to the decades before 1990, the case in Africa is different.
A spatial map of forest cover change (Figure 4) is then developed by using the following by using the following steps.
Figure 4: Map showing change in global forest cover from 1990 to 2025 (predicted)
-
A spatial map for population density for 2025 is prepared by using the population data by CIESIN (1996) as the basis and then using the population growth for each country based on UN Population Projections
- Taking the values of total forest loss from 1990 to 2025 from the regression model for each country, the pixels of forest areas that correspond to higher values of population density are converted to grassland (under the assumption that deforested areas will change to grassland) such that number of forest pixels such converted is equal to the total forest loss for that country.
