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Poster Session 3
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Application of GKSIM Model for Estimating the Changes of Land Use and Land Cover
5. Results and discussion
In applying GKSIM model to estimating the changes of land use and land cover, some past survey data are used. Input data are the one as follows.
- Some past survey data.
- The limit value of the maximum and the minimum values.
If the difference of the maximum and the minimum value set large, the estimated result becomes unreal. And if the past survey data to input aren't conformed to the change tendency of them and the difference of the maximum and the minimum values is too large, error of the estimated result changes largely. But such a thing should not be occurred in regard to land use and land cover. The land use and the land cover are separated to four types, the cultivated acreage, the forest land, the cattle land, and the others. The each land use and land cover is estimated in a wide area on a country and prefecture scale hardly change largely. If a considerable policy decision is done, the estimated result will approximate to forecast value. Always the political land use and land cover slowly changes for 10 years or 20 of a short range.
If GKSIM model is applied to a small area as cities, towns, and villages, the estimated result can change largely. The difference of the maximum and the minimum values must be large in such a case.
Also if the difference of the maximum and the minimum values is changed, the changes of land use and land cover on the difficult scale as a country and prefecture or cities, towns, and villages can be estimated and GKSIM simulation on the various condition would be able to carry out. If the policy goal value is set on the maximum and the minimum values, GKSIM and/or KSIM will be used effectly from now to future.
References
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Yoshikazu Sawaragi, Kazuhiko Kawamura : " Joining System Approach ", The Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun, Ltd., pp.181-203,1981.
- K. Otsubo et. al. : "The Long Range Estimation of the Land Use and Land Cover in Asia and the Pacific Area (1), The Study of the Land Use and Land Cover about the global Environment Preservation ", LU/GEC project team. Pp.130-136, 1996.
- K. Otsubo et. al. : " LU/GEC Project Report -the Long Range Estimation of the Land Use and Land Cover in Asia and the Pacific Area (II)-", National Institute for Environmental Studies Environment Agency of Japan Center for global Environmental Research, pp.15-18,1997.
- ] K. Otsubo et. al. : " LU/GEC Project Report -the Long Range Estimation of the Land Use and Land Cover in Asia and the Pacific Area (III)-", National Institute for Environmental Studies Environment Agency of Japan Center for global Environmental Research, pp.86-97,1998.
- Ichiro Nomura, Takashi Hoshi :" Application of GKSIM Model for Estimating the Changes of Land Use and Land Cover in Taiwan and the Indication by GIS ", Annual Conference of JSPRS, L-3, pp.245-248, 1998.5
- Ichiro Nomura, Takashi Hoshi :" Estimation for Change of Land use in Korea Using GKSIM Model ", Annual Conference of JSPRS, H-4, 1998. 10
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