3. Results and discussion
The landscape patterns of the Liukuei ecosystem management area are shown in Fig.1.


Fig 1 Landscape structures in 1988 and 1996 under different extents of interference.
The values of landscape indices under different conditions are compared in Table 1.

Table 1. Values of landscape indices under different extents of interference

Yr	Landscape index	Index value under cumulated effect
		Original	Add streams	Add roads	Add stands
1988	Number of patches	20	46	68	128
	Mean patch size (ha)	122	53	36	19
	Largest patch index (%)	99	98	28	19
	Total edge (km)	7.1	66.4	136.0	176.4
	Mean shape index	1.40	4.00	4.30	3.16
1996	Number of patches	29	64	82	159
	Mean patch size (ha)	84	38	30	15
	Largest patch index (%)	99	98	28	20
	Total edge (km)	9.6	69.7	138.2	187.8
	Mean shape index	1.51	3.48	3.87	2.83

The results indicate that forestation greatly increased the number of patches; streams significantly decreased the mean patch size; and road building affected the largest patch index the most. The total edge increased as the cumulated effect increased, but the effects of streams, road building and forestation did not differ by much. Streams and roads made the patches become irregular in shape. However, because man-made stands tend to be regular in shape, the mean shape indices decreased due to forestation. Comparing the index values in 1988 and 1996 indicates that forestation during the period increased the number of patches, decreased the mean patch size, and slightly increased the length of total edge. The mean shape index also decreased due to regular-shaped forestation. However, because natural forests reclaimed parts of the man-made stands, the largest patch index increased slightly.

Table 2. The transition matrix and transition probabilities of the observed landscape changes

Transition from row to column	Man-made conifers	Man-made hardwoods	Mixed forests	Natural hardwoods	Bare lands	Cut areas	1988 total
Man-made conifers	384.3 0.841	3.1 0.007	13.6 0.036	50.6 0.111	5.4 0.012	0 0	457.0 1
Man-made hardwoods	1.5 0.017	48.3 0.563	1.4 0.016	34.6 0.403	0 0	0 0	85.7 1
Mixed forest	2.5 0.121	0.4 0.019	13.4 0.008	4.3 0.208	0.02 0.001	0 0	20.6 1
Natural hardwoods	35.1 0.119	60.9 0.034	13.97 0.008	1688.0 0.936	4.1 0.002	1.58 0.001	1803.7 1
Bare lands	1.0 0.051	0 0	0 0	13.7 0.727	4.2 0.222	0 0	18.9 1
Cut areas	12.25 0.248	14.65 0.297	10.4 0.211	11.7 0.237	0.4 0.007	0 0	49.4 1
1988 total	436.6	127.4	52.7	1802.9	14.1	1.6	2435.3

Table 2 shows the Markovian transition matrix and transition probabilities of the observed landscape changes from 1988 to 1996. The landscape was classified into man-made conifers, man-made hardwoods, mixed forests, natural hardwoods, bare lands, and cut areas. The land cover distributions in 1988 and 1996 are summarized in the row and column total, respectively. The most apparent landscape change was the conversion of 95 ha of natural hardwoods into man-made stands. However, about 85 ha of man-made stands were reclaimed by natural hardwoods, too. Mixed forests also increased substantially. Cut areas, on the other hand, decreased dramatically because most of them were wither reforested or taken over by natural hardwoods. In the transition probability matrix, it shows that 11% of man-made conifers, 40% of man-made hardwoods, and 21% of mixed forests became natural hardwoods. Natural hardwoods also substantially reclaimed non-forested land. About 54% of cut areas wee reforested, and 45% of them were taken over by natural hardwoods, leaving less than 1% non-forested.

Using the land cover distribution in 1996 as the base year, subsequent land cover distributions were projected until the equilibrium condition was reached was reached. Table 3 compares the land cover distributions in 1988, 1996 and under the equilibrium.

Table 3. Comparisons of land cover distributions

	1988	1996	Equilibrium
Man-made conifers	457	437	311
Man-made hardwoods	86	127	155
Mixed forests	21	53	76
Natural hardwoods	1806	1803	1882
Bare lands	19	14	10
Cut areas	49	2	2
Total area	2436	2436	2436

The results suggest that the area of man-made conifers would decrease. However, continuing reforestation would increase the area of man-made hardwoods. The area of mixed forests would maintain at 76 ha. The area of natural hardwoods would increase. Non-forested cut areas would maintain at a very negligible size of 2 ha, and the area of bare lands would decrease. Results of long-term simulation show that it would take approximately 280 years to reach the hypothetical equilibrium.