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| Poster Session 6 |
Monitoring the Thermal IR Anomaly of Zhangbei Earthquake Precursor by Satellite Remote sensing technique
Conclusion and discussion
1. Result discussion
- The thermal IR anomaly precursor before the earthquake was discovered about 14 days before the earthquake. These 14 days can be divided into two periods; one includes the former 8 days and another includes the later 6 days. During the former 8 days, the increasing rate of the ground temperature was relatively slow. The thermal IR anomaly was only found in the west of Tangshan and Zhangjiakou. The anomaly in the west of Tangshan is strip-like and extended 100 km long. The images acquired on Dec. 30 1997 have no obvious thermal IR anomaly. After Jan. 5, the ground thermal IR anomaly became clearer. The obvious stripe-like thermal IR anomaly had formed on images of Jan. 5 and 6. The increasing rate of the ground temperature was speeded on Jan. 8 and 9, 1999, and formed very distinctive thermal IR anomaly belts. The anomaly not only appeared inn the plateaus area but also expanded in the mountain area in Zhangjiakou. After our careful analysis and interpretation of these thermal IR images, we found that the anomaly ran through the southeast side if the Guanting reservoir and extended to the NE mountain range. Thus, the happening and developing of the thermal IR belt from Zhangbei to Bohai Gulf can be regarded as the thermal IR anomaly precursors of Zhangbei earthquake.
- Satellite remote sensors can detect the changing process of the thermal anomaly precursors of the earthquake. And our "Fast processing System" is capable of extracting the thermal IR anomaly information. The case discussed above is a typical example to use NOAA data to monitor the thermal IR anomaly precursor information of the earthquake.
- Thermal IR anomaly belt in which the temperature had kept increasing prior to the earthquake suddenly disappeared 9 hours before the earthquake on the image of Jan. 10. The above phenomenon coincided with the relationship of IR radiation to the rock stress in the hypo central physical experiment.
2 Preliminary discussion about the mechanism
- The happening and development of thermal IR anomaly precursor is consistent with our observed relationship of IR radiation to the rock press in the hypocentral physical experiment. So, our monitoring of the thermal IR anomaly precursors before the earthquake is based on an experimental theoretical foundations. [3-6]
- The variation of ground IR radiation results from the increasing and variations of the rock pressure, which is mainly controlled by the intensity if the stress field. The speed of the stress transfer is determined by the speed of the elastic and plastic waves. It can't be explained by thermal conduction theory.
- It's most probably the structural activity of the fault from Bohai to Zhangjiakou that results in the thermal IR anomaly precursors of Zhanbei earthquake.(Figure 1).
- It's the hot gas emission due to the fault that causes the strip-like thermal IR anomaly area, not "Greenhouse Effect".
Summary
The dynamic process of detecting the thermal IR anomaly precursor of Zhangbei earthquake is a typical case for using the satellite remote sensing technology to forecast earthquake. What we need is deeper research on the IR anomaly production mechanism. We suggest that it should be regard as a new technology and new method in earthquake forecast and should be given deeper research in 21 century.
References
- Gorny, V.I., ect. Al., the earth outgoing IR Radiation as an indicator of seismic activity, Proceeding of Academy of Sciences of the USSR, 30(1), 67-69, 1998.
- Qiang Zuji, Xu Xudeng etc., Satellite TIR Anomaly----------Earthquake Precursor, Science Report of China, 1990, 35(17): 1324-1327.
- Cui Chengyu, Deng Mingde, Geng Naiguang, Rock Spectrum Feature Research on different Pressure, Science Report of China, 1993, 38(6): 538-541.
- Deng Minde, Cui Chengyu, Geng Naiguang, Theory and Test Result of Earthquake by Remote Sensing Technology, China Earthquake, 1993, (2).
- Geng Naiguang et al., The Remote Sensing Observation in Experiments of Rock Failure and the Beginning of Remote Sensing Rock Mechanics, ACTA SEISMOLOGICAL SINICA, 1993, Vol.6, No.4.
- Cui Chengyu, et al., Basic Experimental Research of Earthquake prediction by Infrared Remote Sensing Technique NEW PROGRESS OF REMOTE SENSING SCIENCE, Science Press, 1995.
Figure 1: Geological structure and deduced buried active structuree
MAP OF BRIGHTNESS TEMP. CHANNEL NO.4 BEIJING AREA
NOAA 14 DS
4:53 12/28/97 IRSA
Figure 2: Local TIR Anomaly Image
Figure 3: Strip-like TIR anomaly area
Figure 4: Bohai gulf to Zhangbei TIR anomaly zone
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