The Development of Forest Fire Forecasting System
using Internet GIS and Satellite Remote Sensing
Materials and Methods
In this paper the classes of trees in this area were simply composed of Conifer, Deciduous, Mixed forest, and Agriculture. And the dimensions of damage area, the classification of vegetation and land classification map were found out by Landsat images.
The spatial data including topographic map, geologic map and aerial photo was used to make forest fire hazard index GIS DB. ERDAS IMAGINE 8.3 and Unix Arc/Info GIS tool for image processing and spatial analysis are used and Map Object 2.0 and Visual Basic 6.0 for Internet Network are needed. Virtual GIS is applied to realize forest fire hazard index on 3D terrain.
Topographies of three areas, which are called Hawsan, Hawnam, Jungang in Young-chon city, are analyzed. More than 60% of forest fire happened in between a slope of zero and a slope of twenty degrees and in aspect of south and southern west. Places of those disasters occurred between 100m and 350m above the sea level and close to road, which is far from river.
Table 1. Forest fire Summary
| Area | Date | Temperature | Precipitation(mm) | Damage(ha) | Vegetation |
| A | 1999/4/15 | 10.43 | 42.5 | 5 | Conifer |
| C | 1999/3/31 | 8.55 | 0 | 1.5 | Conifer |
| G | 1999/3/4 | 4.97 | 18.5 | 1.5 | Deciduous |
After analyzing above table1, the main factors which could affect forest fire, are needle-leaf trees the aspect of southern west and humidity.
Forest fire hazard index could be extracted by using average data acquired from an observation station based on three above factors and presented it in a contour line.
In general, predict modeling was used like density transfer, density regression, significance regression, discriminate function analysis, logistic regression. In this research, logistic regression was considered most suitable analysis because it could compute difference of a variable environment between occurrence spot, in addition nonoccurrence spot and applied to undetected area yield probability.
Zi = 3.754 + 0.231×(slope) + 0.324×(elevation)+ 0.165×(aspect) + 0.328×(stream) + 0.195×(forest type) + -0.017×(agricultural pattern) + -0.128×(urban) + 0.030×(road)+ 0.872×(rainfall)+ 0.652×(sunshine)+0.713×(moisture)
Pi = exp(Zi) / (1 + exp(Zi))
Figure 2. Hazard Map on Study Area
Forest fire hazard Index Forecast System using GIS
Development of Forecasting System
The purpose of this study is to develop the most effective method for a forest fire forecasting through GIS and Remote Sensing. In this study digital map was prepared and expressed numerically which includes factors of geographical and natural features, which are necessary factors to forecast a forest fire hazard index.
Fire potential requires collecting baseline vegetation information, daily to weekly monitoring of vegetation condition or vigor daily monitoring of weather conditions, and acquiring risk management information.
A computer-based model is to predict wild fire behavior across time and space. The computer model uses fuel type, weather conditions, slope, aspect and elevation to predict the direction, speed, and burn intensity of a wild fire across various landscapes. The model uses Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. The program is responsible for all the complex computations necessary for simulating fire behavior.
The model's user-interface is designed so advanced computer skills and GIS knowledge is not required to execute the model. Ease-of-use puts fire behavior prediction into the hands of fire managers where it can be most effectively applied. With fire damage growing every year, fire departments need better planning tools to minimize fire's impact.
The model is also a good analysis tool for resource managers. A Graphic User Interface (GUI) allows the user to easily specify and edit the data and parameters necessary to execute each simulation. Forest fire Danger Index Presentation System would be useful to managers, policy makers and scientists interested in mitigating and evaluating the effects of forest fire. Real time forest fire hazard information is offer to public welfare and administration business management.
Figure 3. Procedure of Study Frame
