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Use of satellite data and farmers eye estimate for crop yield modeling
Randhir Singh
Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute
New Delhi 110012 India
1. Introduction
Forecasting of crop production is one of the most important aspects of agricultural statistics system. The crop forecasts/advanced estimates of crops are presently developed by Ministry of Agriculture for taking policy decision relating to procurement, marketing, export, import etc These forecasts at present are based on eye estimates and information obtained through remote sensing and are subjective in nature. The final crop production estimates based on objective crop cutting surveys become available long after the harvests. This as such calls for the necessity of objective methods for pre-harvest forecast of crop yields.
The main factors affecting crop yield are inputs and weather. Use of these factors forms one class of models for forecasting crop yields. The other approach uses plant vigour measured through plant characters. It is assumed that plant characters are integrated affects of all the factors affecting yield. Yet another approach is measurement of crop vigour through remotely sensed data. These approaches are being tried by various organizations
In case of crop yield modeling using satellite data, several studies have been undertaken to establish relationship between spectral parameters through vegetation indices and the crop yield. In the present study, an effort is made to use the farmers eye estimates of crop yield more objectively as a auxiliary variable along with the spectral indices based on satellite data to improve the efficiency of crop yield models for forecasting crop yield. Farmer’s estimates have been obtained for the same fields in which crop-cutting experiments are conducted. Results have shown that using these models reliable forecast of crop yield for wheat crop could be obtained about six weeks prior to crop harvest.
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