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Map Malaysia 2009
Abstract
Early Warning of Extreme Weather Events
Saw Bun Leong
Director
Central Forecast Office
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Malaysia
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007
has noted an increasing trend in extreme weather events over the past 50 years. The IPCC emission
scenarios project warming of 1.8oC to 4.0oC and global sea level rise of 180 to 590 mm at 2090-2099
relative to 1980-1999, with irregular weather patterns and extreme events are likely to intensify in the
future. The extreme weather events is a concern shared by all countries in the world. Ensuring effective
early warnings is a priority for disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness.Over the recent years,
increase in weather extremes has also been observed in Malaysia. This increase is largely due to variability
in the sea surface temperatures (SST) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (El Nino/La Nina events) and the
Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Dipole). For example, the winter monsoon of 2006/2007 and 2007/2008
brought torrential rain and floods to Malaysia. The rainfall during the winter monsoon of 2006/2007 was
the worst ever recorded over southern Peninsular Malaysia, caussd floods of 100-year return period. Other
extreme events such as severe thunderstorms, dry periods and haze have become more prevalent over
the recent years. Due to the complex interaction of the atmosphere, ocean and biosphere, the global
warming definitely has contributed to these changes.This paper provides a brief overview on the climate
trends and the progress on weather monitoring, forecasting and warning in Malaysia. The level of knowledge
required for effective early warning of extreme weather events has been steadily refined especially
concerning the location of the projected impacts and their timing.
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