|
|
|
Use of GIS methodology to unravel theoretical puzzles in explaining fertility transition dynamics in the South Indian states
Dr. S. Gunasekaran
Department of Sociology, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry
Abstract
In the recent past, fertility in the states of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondiherry has reached replacement level and such low level of fertility regime is about to emerge in the states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh as well in the next few years. Fertility levels observed in these southern states seem to be inconsistent with the levels of development as measured by conventional indicators of development as well as levels of infant mortality rate and therefore challenge many tenets of existing theories of fertility decline. Further, such a pattern of inconsistent fertility change further questions received wisdom gained by the experiences of several countries in Europe and in countries such as Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
In order to understand the fertility transition dynamics in the southern states of India and reproduce such a change by appropriate policy manipulations in the northern states, the causal processes that produced fertility decline need to be delineated and identified. As the existing theories and concepts generated by them have proved their inadequacy in providing a comprehensive understanding of the unprecedented demographic scenario emerging in the southern states of the country, such an endeavor will also be able to suggest outlines for new theories of fertility change.
Therefore, in order to get better insights into this dynamics, it is necessary to undertake geographical disaggregation of the existing state level data into lower levels of aggregation such as districts and community development blocks within the southern states. It is believed that use of GIS approach will allow us to discern geographic patterns of fertility change and visual correlations of such change with other variables of importance. This will not only enable better understanding of the transition but also help demographers and social scientists in exploring alternative theoretical frameworks and consequently generate new theoretical concepts that are relevant to the Indian social and cultural context. Last but not the least, this would also suggest policy guidelines for planners and administrators grappling with the problem of fertility control in many northern states, especially the BIMARU states.
This paper would suggest an approach to using GIS methodology for addressing this problem.
|
|
|