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Abstract
Modeling Spatial Diffusion of SARS in China during 2003
Lin Liu
Associate Professor
University of Cincinnati, USA
Email: lin.liu@uc.edu
Jinhu Ju
Abstract
This study aims to model the spatial diffusion of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China during 2003. The first case of SARS was discovered in Southern China in late 2002. Since then it had spread to many other regions of China. No new SARS cases were reported after June 6 of 2003 until April of 2004. This study focuses on the cases reported daily during the period of April 21 to June 6 of 2003. It is rational to assume that the spatial pattern of SARS cases is a result of three diffusion processes: relocation diffusion, hierarchical diffusion and contagious diffusion. This study incorporated these three processes in a single mixed spatial diffusion model. This model is based on Hagerstrand’s original spatial diffusion model, but with significant modifications. It relaxed the constraints of dividing a geographic space into regular grids, thus allowing individual provinces and cities modeled as separated entities. It eliminated the constraints of assuming spatial interaction is symmetrical in all directions, therefore enabling more realistic modeling of spatial interaction among people from different regions. This model has been implemented in ArcGIS. Preliminary result demonstrated that the estimated spatial distribution of SARS cases resembles the actual distribution reasonably well. It is the hope of the authors that studies like this can help better understand the mechanism of spreading of SARS.
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