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Abstract
Using GIS to spatially portray the prevalence of HIV/AIDS and its demographic consequences in selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa
Rajendran Pillay
University of the North, P. O. Box 3604, 0699, Pietersburg Limpopo Province, South Africa
Email: PillayR@unin.unorth.ac.za
Tel: Int+(0)15-268-2995, Fax: Int+(0)15-268-2892 or 268-2323
Abstract
Background: With the onset of the new millennium Sub-Saharan Africa is currently the epicenter of HIV/AIDS infection with 23.3m at the beginning of 2000. That’s 70% of world infections in an area that has only 10% of the global population. The HIV/AIDS disease knows no boundaries, but spatial epidemiology through cartographical analysis may yield vital clues as to HIV distribution (clustered or random) across communities with different norms and socio-economic status. Cartographic and GIS techniques would also assist in developing measures for monitoring the geographical spread of the HIV/AIDS pandemic over four years in selected countries across sub-Saharan Africa.
Methods: A base map for the HIV/AIDS mapping would be constructed for the purpose of HIV/AIDS spatial portrayal. Using ArcView GIS, HIV/AIDS data from six countries are cartographically mapped retrospectively from 1997 to 2000 to show current trends in the spread of the virus. Further, choropleth techniques would show the rates of incidence of the HI virus per administrative district level for the selected countries over four years and also look at some consequences to their respective district populations. The accumulative effect of an increase in HIV/AIDS per district over a set period: 1997 to 2000 would also be spatially portrayed via choropleth mapping.
Results: Whiteside and Sunter (2000) reckons that AIDS claims 5 500m men, women and children everyday in Africa. Studies conducted in both rural and urban areas in nine different African countries showed more women affected than men (13:10); this is continuing to skew the demography of many African countries with men outnumbering women. An interesting turnaround in HIV/AIDS prevalence is only visible in Uganda. In many of the other African countries a mortality decline by 25% between 1997 and 2004 and life expectancy from about 66 to 49years by 2004 is quite possible. South Africa is most frightening with the KwaZulu-Natal Province being consistently high at 32.5%. In 1998, Mpumalanga had the second highest prevalence rate (30%) but dropped to 27.9% in 1999 putting the province in the third place behind the Free State. One of the lowest prevalence is the Limpopo (Northern) Province (LP), where a sample survey in 2000, based on 1808 blood specimens, found 238 (13.2%) women attending ANC’s to be HIV positive. This was a 1.77% increase from 1999’s 11.43% and a 5% increase from the 1997’s 8.2% (DOH, 2000).
Conclusion: The spatial dynamics of this pandemic can be portrayed using Cartographic and GIS techniques e.g. choropleth mapping of HIV/AIDS data. Moreover, the emerging patterns of the spread of HIV/AIDS, within the different districts, of the six selected countries over a four year period may provide some guidelines to the possible trend that HIV/AIDS would take over the next four year cycle. This however, must be met with the appropriate clinical, educational and social programs to secure some control or curtailment on the spatial spread of the HI virus in sub-Saharan Africa by 2004.
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