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The impact of dual-use aspects of high-resolution commercial observation satellites in the middle east
In this context, the dual-use nature of
high-resolution satellites, with both military and civil applications, is
highlighted. Among the countries in the region, Israel is probably the most
sensitive to the dual-use impact of high-resolution commercial imaging
satellites. This sensitivity was expressed in the early 1990s, when the U.S.
government’s decision to remove the limitations on high-resolution commercial
imaging led to concern among Israeli defence officials regarding the impact on
national security. Israel’s very small territorial extent, which allows for
detailed and repeated coverage with a relatively limited number of images, makes
it vulnerable to attacks based on data accessible through commercial
high-resolution imaging satellites.
Its deterrence postureand strategy is based on maintaining a high degree of uncertainty in the eyes of potential enemies, particularly with respect to the nuclear and ballistic missile potential. Israeli policy makers feared that Arab states, and Iran, as well as terrorist groups, would be able to exploit these high-resolution images to obtain very detailed intelligence of Israeli capabilities and deployments. Their ability to target Israeli sites with a high degree of precision would alter the balance of power fundamentally, particularly if these images were combined with GPS data to target cruise or ballistic missiles.14 The military applications of commercial satellite imaging, and the potential destabilising impact is not confined to the Middle East. Indeed, the emergence of capabilities for receiving detailed images from the battlefield, and distributing them (or analyses based on this data) directly and immediately to the commanders on the battlefield, is increasingly recognised as one of the major innovations in conventional warfare. In 1995, US Secretary of Defence William Perry noted the central role that space forces play, stemming from their “exceptional capabilities” for collecting, processing and distributing data. If regional powers, rogue states, and terrorist groups have access to this data and capability, they will be able to exploit it for the same purposes.15 U.S. government officials have increasingly recognised the potential impact of the proliferation of this technology. Keith Hall, Director of the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office, stated that “Real-time imagery capabilities provided by E-O and other technologies is causing a revolution in warfare.”16 In analysing the 1991 Gulf War, he noted “Satellite reconnaissance was a major factor in the rapid US victory.” However, his public statements do not address the impact on U.S. interests, allies or on regional stability in areas such as the Middle East. In contrast, other analysts emphasise the destabilising impact of these capabilities on a global basis. For example, “Islamic Jihad could get its hands on a one-metre resolution picture of a US Air Force General’s headquarters in Turkey, convert the shot to a precise three-dimensional image, combine it with data from a GPS device and transmit it to Baghdad, where a primitive cruise missile, purchased secretly from China could await its targeting coordinates.”17 Gupta notes that the impact “depends on how the new remote sensing services will be distributed through the political landscape, how belligerent states will use the high-resolution images, and how observed states will respond to routine overhead imaging by their neighbours.”18 He warns that unlimited sales of high-resolution imaging could disrupt “delicate balances of power”, complicate the containment of international crises, and fuel developments in offensive weapons capability.19 Similarly, former CIA director James Woolsey concludes, “This very comfortable world people have been living in where fixed target installations on land are safe” will vanish with the proliferation of high-resolution commercial imaging.20 As noted above, the Middle East is characterised by a high level of conflict, and instability is increased by a number of revisionist powers (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya), as well as numerous terrorist groups with access to funds and advanced technology, including the Bin Laden network. As a result, high-resolution satellite imaging whether dedicated military platforms or commercial systems, are viewed primarily in the context of their dual-use nature. As will be seen in the following discussion, security concerns are the foundation for Israel’s efforts to limit the distribution of high-resolution images.  Israel has the most active and advanced space programme in the region, including a dedicated military imaging system (Ofeq), and the commercial EROS programme. The military establishments of other countries which do not have the resources for dedicated reconnaissance satellites, such as Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Iran are likely to be major customers for commercial imaging products, while applying the data to military intelligence applications. However, the market for civil applications of high-resolution satellite imaging systems in the Middle East and Persian Gulf is also significant. As in other regions, space-based imaging has long been used for urban planning, location and identification of natural resources, including water, (particularly in large and remote deserts), agriculture, and environmental monitoring. In some of these applications, commercial high-resolution imaging can be used to improve the efficiency. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have developed an advanced infrastructure in civil applications of remote-sensing, and the UAE has created a commercial centre to provide remote sensing services (both military and civil) to the Arab and Islamic world (all states in the region except Israel). The Israeli Program Israel has had an active and growing space programme for two decades. As in the case of the U.S. and USSR during the Cold War, the environment of conflict led Israel to develop imaging satellites capable of real-time intelligence. The centrality of intelligence and early warning was emphasised as the countries in the region began to acquire ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. On occasion, the U.S. shared strategic and space-based intelligence information with Israel. However, despite the close defense cooperation with the American government, Israel did not have routine access to real-time satellite intelligence data. A Defence Ministry official was quoted saying “For years we have been begging the Americans for more detailed pictures from their satellites and often got refusals — even when Iraqi Scud missiles were falling on Tel Aviv....”21 At times, the IDF has turned to other sources, including Russia, which reportedly sold hundreds of satellite pictures of Syria, Iran and Iraq for about $1 million, as part of a secret cooperation agreement.22 The Middle East peace process and the transfer of territory to Egypt and the Palestinian Authority has reduced Israel’s ability to rely on ground-based early warning and intelligence installations, increasing the reliance on space-based systems. This dependence will increase if Israel relinquishes the Golan Heights to Syrian control, including the early-warning station on Mt. Hermon. Following an agreement with Syria, Israel will need systems, including satellites, to provide early warning of any Syrian military activity. |