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Seismic loss estimation for Lalitpur, Nepal


Cees J. van Westen
International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, The Netherlands.
Email: westen@itc.nl


Abstract
The main objective of the research project, entitled “Strengthening local authorities in risk management” is to develop spatial information systems for municipalities, which will allow local authorities to evaluate the risk of natural disasters in their municipality, in order to implement strategies for vulnerability reduction. The project concentrates on medium-sized cities in developing countries, which do not yet utilize Geographic Information Systems in their urban planning, and which are threatened by natural hazards. The methodology concentrates on the application of methods for hazard assessment, elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, and the development of GIS-based risk scenarios for varying hazard scenarios and vulnerability reduction options, using structural and/or non-structural measures. In the development of elements at risk databases use is made of interpretation of high-resolution satellite imagery, combined with extensive field data collection, using mobile GIS. Here results are presented on earthquake loss estimation for the city of Lalitpur in Nepal, for buildings and for population losses.

1. Introduction
The recent tragic earthquake disaster in Pakistan is one of a series of events that severely impacts the fast-growing world population. It again demonstrates the lack of proper risk reduction measures, such as building codes, in most countries. Local authorities in cities are responsible for the proper management of the area under their jurisdiction, and the well being of the citizens, which includes an optimal protection against disasters. Since the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction in the 1990’s many initiatives have been launched worldwide to assess and reduce urban vulnerability, such as Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters (RADIUS, 2000), the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI, 2002), and the Cities and Critical Infrastructure Project (Cities Project, 2004).

Due to the diversity and large volumes of data needed, and the complexity in the analysis procedures, quantitative risk assessment has only become feasible in the last two decades, due to the developments in the field of Geo-Information science.

In order to contribute to urban risk assessment in developing countries the International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC) launched a research project with the acronym SLARIM, which stand for “Strengthening Local Authorities in Risk Management”. The main objective of this research project is to develop generic methodologies for GIS-based risk assessment and decision support systems that can be beneficial for local authorities in medium-sized cities in developing countries.

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