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Earthquakes in Delhi: A capital problem


Plan of action
A valid question at this stage will be: should one be concerned about an earthquake which has a very low probability of occurrence, when Delhi faces so many day-to-day problems of environment, noise, traffic, water and power shortage, etc? The consequences of a severe earthquake to not seriously address the problem. Put it differently, considering the potential for a mega disaster, we cannot afford ignore the earthquake problem.

As a first step towards earthquake disaster mitigation the problem must first be recognized and quantified. Herein lies the first challenge: to discuss and debate the problem of this kind on a rational basis and yet not cause panic. Once the problem is identified and an action plan agreed upon, the need will arise for a political and administrative will to implement the action plan. It must be emphasized that the problem requires huge efforts and is well beyond a few individuals or a few organizations. Numerous scientific and engineering activities will have to be initiated simultaneously before we can even quantify the size of the problem by way of seismic risk scenarios.

As of now, there are too few experts in this subject for a large country like India. We must focus our attention to the institutionally and manpower development at all levels. Extensive studies are needed for seismic hazard evaluation for different parts of Delhi and vulnerability assessment for different kinds of constructions; using these, seismic risk evaluation for Delhi must be carried out. Manuals need to be developed outlining methodologies for new constructions and retrofitting of old ones. A strong legal and enforcement framework with appropriate incentives and punitive measures is required together with awareness programmes for general public. All these components must be taken up simultaneously; ignoring one aspect for the other could be counterproductive.

Summary and conclusions
Delhi has had many damaging earthquakes in the past and is placed in a high seismic zone (zone IV). Delhi is prone not only to damaging earthquakes in or near Delhi, but due to its peculiar geological setting it could also sustain strong shaking due to a large earthquake in the Himalaya. Unfortunately, most buildings in Delhi may not meet Indian standards on aseismic constructions and may be considered deficient from seismic safety view point. Thus, there is a real potential for a great earthquake disaster in Delhi, the implications of which go well beyond casualties because of its political and commercial significance.

There is an urgent need for healthy debates on seismic risk aspects of Delhi and for reasonable assessment of the problem. Studies are needed on seismic hazard evaluation for different types of construction. Using these, seismic risk scenarios must be developed and implementation strategies chalked out for new and old constructions. The efforts required are truly multidisciplinary and should include components on technical training, institutional development, development of technical manuals, legal and enforcement aspects, and public awareness programmes. Most importantly, we need the political will to handle this problem and the biggest challenge perhaps lies in drawing the attention of political leadership to this problem when the city faces many other urgent problems.

References
  1. BMPTC, 1997, Vulnerability Atlas of India, Building Materials & Technology Promotion Council, New Delhi
  2. Housner, G.W., 1998, 'Foreword' in the Special Issue of the Indian Concrete Journal on Lessons from Recent Earthquake, Vol.72, No.11, November, p.545.
  3. IS:q1893-1962 (1962), Indian Standard Recommendations for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi.
  4. IS:1893-1894 (1984), Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi.
  5. Iynegar, R.N., 2000, 'Seismic Status of Delhi Megacity', Current Science, vol.78,No.5, March, pp. 568 - 574.
  6. Jain, S.K. and Nigam, N.C., 'Historical Developments and Current Status of Earthquake Engineering in India', Proceedings of the Twelth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Auckland, New Zealand, Paper No. 1792, Jan - Feb 2000.
  7. Jain, S.K. and Murty, C.V.R. (1998), ' A State-of -the Art Review on Seismic Design of Bridges - Part II :: CALTRANS, TNZ AND Indian Codes', The Indian Concrete Journal, 72, 3, pp129-138.
  8. Srivastava, L.S and Somayajulu, J.G., 1966, 'The Seismicity of the Area Around Delhi', Proceeding of the Third Symposium of Earthquake Engineering, Roorke, November 1966,pp.417-422.
  9. Srivastava, V.K and Roy, A.K., 1982, 'Seism tectonics and Seismic Risk Study in and Around Delhi Region', Proceedings of the Fourth congress of the International Association of Engineering Geology, New Delhi, Vol.VII, pp.VIII.77-VIII.86.
  10. Tandon, A.N., 1953, 'The Very Great Earthquake of August 15, 1950', A Compilation of Papers on the Assam Earthquake of August 15, 1950 (Compiled by M.B. Ramachandra Rao), The Central Board of Geophysics, Govt. of India, pp.80-89.-

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