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Findings of the Study
Following are the findings of the study, which have been found after the analysis and study of the area;

• There is severe lack of land use planning in the study area high-class residential area is located just on the river bank. There is no restriction on the construction of buildings along the riverbank.
• Due to unplanned population growth the people are restricting the natural flow of water.
• Most of the low class residential houses are situated close to the river Jhelum. These houses are very old which are expose to damaging during high flooding.
• Red fort, which is the cultural heritage of the study area, is located just on the bank of River Neelum and adversely affected by flood during the flood and also during the normal river flow.
• Government has constructed two mega projects in order to protect the high-class residential area from adverse effect of flood. One is the embankment in the middle plate just below the Red fort but it has no role in order to provide shelter to the red fort from flood damage. Another project is with the collaboration of UNDP in the lower plate area. Its primary function is providing shelter to high residential area of lower plate but it is also using as hiking way for recreational purposes.
• Flow is very low under the Chehla bandi Bridge near the Red fort, due to which temporary damming of flood water occurs during rainy season. This cause severe damages and the river rises to very high flood level.

Recommendations
The following recommendations are suggested.

Land use Planning
Land use planning can play very important role to reduce the adverse effects of flooding. It is recommended to adopt an appropriate landuse planning in flood prone area. The ideal form of planning would be to evacuate the flood prone completely but practically it is not possible as to involve high costs and some social problem are associated. It is possible to change the functional characteristics of the flood plain area and to apply ban on the future encroachment in the flood prone areas. The ideal application is the zoning control in the flood plains. As suggested by Kates and White in their book in 1961.They put forward a three zone division which are as following.

• Zone 1: (Prohibitive Zone): Complete ban on further encroachment.
• Zone 2: (Restrictive Zone): Certain activities like recreational parks and playgrounds etc are allowed.
• Zone 3: (Warning Zone): In case of emergency should be able to replace the effectees and be warned by the flood situation time by time.

These zones should be demarcated based on the known return period of flooding and probability of occurrence.

Hazard Assessment and Risk Mapping
In most of the countries, the concerned authorities are preparing risk assessment maps by applying GIS and RS as tools now. In this regard, recently Federal Flood Commission in Pakistan has also prepared GIS based hazard maps by indicating villages, which are prone to flood hazard. It is very much important now to regularly updating and proper maintenance of spatial data. These kinds of maps will help the authorities for quick assessment during pre and post disaster situation.

Need of a Computerized GIS Database
There is intense need for computerized GIS databases for the study area. Such data will help the planners and decision-makers to take positive and in time steps during pre-disaster situation. It will also help the planners and decision-makers during post-disaster activities for the assessment of damages and losses occurred due to flooding.

Trained Personnel
There is a need of trained staff to operate GIS database and up-date this data from time to time. Training is advised at these levels;

• Planners, decision makers, civil administration officers.
• Field/Technical staff of line department

The contents of this training program may include basic and advance technical knowledge about Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing, side by side knowledge about physical environment, socio-economic set up, institutional system and information management about the area may also be needed. Besides, seminars and refresher courses for planners and administrators should be organized. Foreign training should be given to planners and decision-makers. In this way, they will be able to know more about the natural hazard prevention and preparedness system there, which will serve as bases to review their own system.

Acquisition of RS Data from SUPARCO office
Acquisition of images especially during any particular flood event from SUPARCO office is very important. It will help the planners and decision-makers to find out the area and villages, which have been affected by flooding. If it is possible then aerial photographs of the flood peak time will further help them to stream line their strategies to mitigate and rehabilitate the flood affectees more efficiently and more quickly.

More Space for River Jhelum Near the City
On both sides of the river Jhelum, the natural flow of the river has been obstructed by the unplanned construction. It is recommended to give back the original space to the river Jhelum. It is very difficult to implement but there is no way out.

Conclusion
Flood hazard is destructive and frequently occurring phenomenon in the study area. Due to lack of proper warning information about the flood hazard to the people living in the flood prone area is not communicated effectively. Due to which affectees receive more damages. Due to severe lack of land use planning in the study area, the community build rather rebuild their houses not only close to the river bank. Hazard assessment and risk mapping can prove very useful tool for advance planning, which is totally missing. No importance has been given on this side. Even a computerized record of the data and archive is not available in concerned offices. Although flooding is a natural phenomenon we can not completely stop it but we can minimize its adverse effects by better planning. For reduction of vulnerability in the study area to flood hazard there is urgent need to adopt long-term strategies by skillfully combining the engineering devices with proper planning

Acknowledgments
The researchers are very thankful to Mr. Zaheer ud Din Qureshi for providing generous help and nice accommodation during our stay in Muzaffarabad city. Also thanks to Ms. Shamoona Naqvi (GIS/RS diploma student) and her parents for providing possible help. Last but not the least, we are thankful to official of land use planning department, Muzaffarabad, who provide maps and necessary information.

References

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