Present scenario of urbanization indicates that around 50% of world population will be living in cities and it is the number of mega cities which are likely to grow to 100, 90% of these would lie in developing nations.
On the other hand increase in Natural disaster in developing countries and lack of capacities of these countries and lack of capacities of these countries to manage the risks have been jeopardizing the process of development. Compared with 30 years ago, the annual cost of natural catastrophes has increased nine fold. Infact according to one of the World Bank estimate proportions of credits approved for new infrastructure had to be diverted to pay for reconstruction following catastrophic events. Over last 10 years geological events such as earthquake and volcano eruption have occurred evenly through out. While the atmospheric events like windstorms, hurricanes, floding, drought, avalanches and forest fires have increased. Windstorms and flooding are most common, each accounting for approximately 33 percent of all events. Sixty percent of deaths from natural disasters are the result of floods. While economics losses from floods, windstorms and hurricanes are almost equally divided, with each accounting for nearly 30 percent of all losses, only 8 percent of flood damage is insured as opposed to 67 percent of the damage from windstorms. The reason for this is that windstorms occur in areas of the world where there is a high level of insurance - the United States, Japan and Australia- while floods dominate in Asia, where the insurance level is low.
Turkey having US $ 20 billion deficit and annual inflartion of 50%, Government was in process of securing US $ 5 billion loan from IMF to enable cut deficit. However earthquake added burden of US $ 8 billion during 1999.
All the above mentioned catastrophes have one thing in common, i.e impact on the poor and the damage to buildings.
To understand the need for intervention in disaster mitigation in an urban situation it is most important to understand the magnitude of the risk involved and its likely consequenmces of Human life and property. Risk assesment is a function of hazard intensity and vulnerability.
Relevant issues
- We need to identify risks and the consequences of these risks- Therefore risk assessment is the basic information that is utmost importance. In the urban situation there is very thin line between manmade and natural disasters.
- For risk assessment there are two fundamental variables to be identified and assessed: Hazard intensity and vulnerability, i.e what and who is affected.
- Urban part of the nation is most vulnerable to disasters. Hazard intensity can be reduced by moving people away from hazard locations or protecting them. Cost benefit would quantity a better option.
- Reduction of vulnerability: By preparing shelters, infrastructure and people.
Vital facts of risks
- Risk depends on hazard intensity and vulnerability. We may not be able to control intensity of hazards out we can intervene to reduce vulnerability, thereby reducing the impact.
- It is the poor and weak who are most vulnerable.
- It is not the disasters that kill, it is the built environment which kill masses, as a strong disaster finds its alley in a weak building.
- It is the communities and human settlements which needs to be prepared as it is the communities who need to react first and it is the habitats which need to be strengthened to withstand the forces of hazards.
- Damage costs in urban areas is proportionately higher in terms of number of people affected due to congestion and value of assets in terms of infrastructure and buildings.