Disaster prone Delhi and role of disaster: Knowledge network

R.K. Bhandari
Director,
National Science and Technology Directorate,
CSIR, New Delhi

Is Delhi prepared?
It is not a simple question. Prepared for what, and how much? Do we really understand the genre of the problem, and are we ready to face it with an ambition to sucked? Taranjot and Verma, in their base paper signal alarm when they say that we do not run this place, Delhi runs itself. If read out of the context, it would mean, the highest compliment to Delhi that it is on auto-pilot, and if and when that really happens, that would be the day to rejoice. The fact of the matter is, however, that neither we appreciate the gravity of the problem nor do we have the will to solve it.

What is the story of Delhi? One third of Delhi is a slum, another one third comprises unauthorized or illegal colonies, and the remaining one third may be classified as developed area with effluent population, but they too can never hide their poor quality of life.

It is also important to distinguish as to whose preparation are we talking about. Is it of the people at large, or communities or the Government and to face what? We must aim at total preparation to meet all foreseen eventualities to give our people at least the minimum acceptable quality of life, and the essential protection against multitude of natural and man made hazards we are exposed to.

Problems, problems and problems
The following recommendations are worthy of careful consideration :

• It is high time Delhi establishes a multi disciplinary think-tank to continuously monitor and address its problems and understand their intimate cross connection. Special studies should be commissioned to evolve appropriate strategies to overcome the problems ensuring peoples participation.
• Seismic micro-zonation is the essential requirement that alone can enable reliable hazard and risk assessments. Further scientific investigation, instrumentation, and systematic monitoring are necessary for a meaningful understanding of the seismic activity and its eventual implications. It is almost a standard practice for the governments to evolve damage potential curves on the lines produced by Poulos in 1991 for earthquake hazard in Newcastle. These co-relate the contours of spectral acceleration with number of stories of buildings, depth of soil overlying rock and the observed behavior of buildings during the earthquake. It was observed by Poulos that 1-5 storied buildings over 515m soil deposits behaved the same way as 3-5m storied buildings under 15-28m soil bed. Both collapsed.
• Delhi suffers from multiple hazards. The area, prone to earthquakes, is also vulnerable to floods. The need for preparation of large-scale multi-hazard maps cannot be over emphasized.
• Early warning against floods, tornadoes and earthquakes must be made increasingly reliable through specialized studies improved technological interventions and knowledge networking.
• The National Building Code, which as not been revised for more than 16 years be re-written, adopted and implemented.
• The key buildings like hospitals, police stations, fire depots, and communication centers etc. should be fortified and made earthquake safe.
• There are no substitutes for Concept of Bhagidari and good governance. Most problems of Delhi would require multidisciplinary teamwork and networking between the teams.

Knowledge Networking
Knowledge networking is the most powerful and efficient way of communicating with all major and minor players at the same time. Linking of databases ensures rapid flow of information and data, and its up-gradation at will. It facilitates cross-linking of information thereby giving a big boost to the decision making process under uncertain premises. Never before has there been the possibility of a million people engaging themselves in the very same dialogue at the same time.

The scope of operation is so exciting that one can benefit from databases in other disciplines as well, for instance history. Take for example Qutab Minar, which is an icon of Delhi. How it will behave during an earthquake cannot be known without recognizing what happened during its more than 700 years of life. It was built by Shahbuddin and Qutbuddin up to its first balcony during 1193-1210 D. The inscription on the third storey says that the Minar suffered further damage due to lightning in 1369 AD. Firozshah Tughlak during 1351-88 AD not only repaired the Minar but raised it. Again, it was repaired in 1503. It would be interesting to know, how the Minar behaved during the five significant earthquakes of 1720, 1803, 1842, 1956 and 1960, all of which were of magnitude 5.5 to 6.7 on the Richter Scale.

Similarly, the knowledge of the soil strata could be pooled, analyzed, and then used. To analyze how the Qutab Minar will behave during an earthquake, knowledge of sub soil profile beneath it is essential. That would call for investments in drilling at the site which in this case may not be necessary provided on is aware of the fact that results of two inclined bore hole drilled at the site of Qutab Minar by Central Soil Mechanics Research Station, New Delhi, had shown that the strata consists of medium fine quartzite sand with bed rock inferred at 45-60m. it remains to be found whether fine sand is susceptible to liquefaction.

Delhi from the global perspective
Urban 21 Global Conference in Berlin held on 4 July 2000, classified cities into three kinds;

• Cities copping with information hyper growth. Such cities are increasingly becoming centres of hope and producers of poverty. The Indian subcontinent, Muslim middle-east, Latin America and Carribean and sub-Saharan Africa fall in this category.
• Cities coping with sudden dynamic growth. In such cities environmental issues are emerging as crucial.
• Matured cities coping with aging. In such cities, population in going down. North America, Europe, Japan, Australia and East Asia are example.