Predictive Analytics for Real Estate

Piyush Trika
Data Specialist
Pitney Bowes MapInfo
India
piyush.trika@pb.com



Abstract
Predictive Analytics gives an insight to visualize the market trends, identify risks, and leverage the location strategy to competitively grow the enterprise.

GIS is no more a separate entity, rather it is being integrated with various business systems in the organizations at core level and at times the pillar of the organization. With the advancement of GIS, many new applications and tools are coming up to cater the needs of public and private organizations globally. Location is the cynosure for both GIS and Real Estate. In the services related to the management of land, Real Estate is one of the fore runner and the fastest growing sectors of India. To help the Real Estate in achieving its goals and provide better infrastructure which can address future needs, “Predictive Analytics” can efficiently add location intelligence to the geography which will help in better decision making through ‘understand, predict and act’.

This paper discusses about the usage of Predictive Analytics in the Real Estate sector; and how people and investors will be benefited by this emerging technology. Working towards sustainable Real Estate will provide us opportunity to make ample progress in our effort to improve the environment.

Introduction
Real Estate market has been growing by leaps and bounds since past few years. As per the industry sources, this revolution has no indication of coming down for further more years to come. Buyers from all over the world are looking forward to investments in Indian real estate market ranging from infrastructure development in residential complexes, commercial locations to retail sector developments.

Booming real estate industry in India is a product of growing IT segment which has completely changed our urban landscape. Owing to lower labor and other costs, many multinational companies are moving their operations to India. This has in turn created a requirement to create space for people to live and work.

Predictive Analytics can play an important role in deciding the best investment option both for user and supplier. It is the only type of analytics that produces predictive scores for each customer or prospect. Locating future potential areas is the most important aspect of real estate investments.

Real Estate: Predictive Analytics Approach
Predictive analytics is statistical analysis that involves extracting information from array of data and using it to predict future trends. GIS is a tool that enables us to integrate the non-spatial to spatial information data so that the map-based content and investment analysis can be done in a more technical way. Real estate is all about location. When GIS will be combined with all the available information regarding land, it will give a comprehensive “select-integrate-analyze-manage” package along with visual representation of all the large volume of information affecting the value of property, desirability and environmental issues. “Analysis and planning is bringing the future into the present, so that you can do something about it now.” Planning looks at the need of the people and this saying reflects the whole aim of this paper which will help to offer real estate planning focused on protection of environment.

Proposed Model
Web-based GIS applications in real estate can be incorporated in decision making processes by applying predictive analytic techniques to answer few of the questions as-

Who are the target customers?
Broadly classifying the target customers as residential and commercial; and as per census data, few points of consideration are-

Income Group

Population

Which sites will offer the most attractive investments and will yield the maximum sales potential? Successful site selection begins with the basics –

Transportation infrastructure and traffic flow

Market analysis

Property size

Zoning restrictions

Land feasibility analysis

Proximity to desired amenities such as schools, parks, medical facilities and shopping centers (for residential real estate)

Available labor pool and potential competitors (for commercial real estate)

Highway (and railroad track) proximity

How to acquire multiple datasets?

Survey Of India - Survey of India provide reliable and quality geospatial data to meet the needs of national development and new information markets.

National Informatics Centre – NIC provides solutions to clients for better decision making processes for social and economic development, planning and implementation.

Environmental Information Centre (An initiative of ministry of environment and forests, Government of India) – EIC is a house to environmental information. They have a variety of datasets such as forest and protected areas, demography, topography, soil, water, disaster prone areas etc.

Geological Survey Of India – Various maps such as district resource maps, geological map, mineral map etc. District resource maps show mineral resources, irrigation projects, ground water resources and hazard mitigation which help planners for various development decisions.

How to make the building (both residential and commercial); and surroundings environment friendly?

Site for real estate should be planned with sympathetic regard to the natural landscape with minimum landscape fragmentation and maintaining natural corridors. Natural ecosystem should be promoted at all levels of establishments. The various environmental factors to be kept under consideration are-

1. The building design should enable individual building lots to maximize the usage of renewable sources of energy such as solar access, wind, tidal energy etc. Initial solar energy extraction device like solar water pumping, solar water heating systems etc. may be planted for further encouraging people to use such ways which suit their requirement.
2. The buildings should be made energy efficient. One of the easiest things to reduce electrical consumption is to replace the regular incandescent light bulbs to compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs).
3. Easy access to public transportation is important. Also, a provision for cycle ways should also be kept.
4. Various measures should be taken to preserve water which is the most precious natural resource.
5. Real estate professional should be aware of waste disposal techniques because proximity to waste disposal sites may affect a property’s desirability.
6. Due to global climate change in the past few years, natural disasters such as earthquake, landslide, floods etc. have changed their intensity, frequency and appearing time. Pertaining to these situations, the construction of new building structures and the assessment of safety of the existing structures should be considered before hand in the condition of unusual natural and man-made disasters (such as fire, structural collapse). Few considerations for overcoming these disasters are-

a Earthquake Resistant Set-up - The building structures should be safer and earthquake resistant to ensure public safety. For this, the load and stresses caused by shaking during earthquakes should be well understood by the design professionals. As per the modern techniques, to withstand the earthquake-generated force, the major forces should not be making strong buildings, but to reduce such forces. Also, the proposed real estate establishment is lying in which earthquake zone should be taken care of.

b Flood Mitigation – Floods can cause widespread economic and social damage, especially for a country like India, floods have been causing havoc since long. The flood mitigation can be achieved by proper site selection away from the flood plains. Should buildings be sited in flood-prone areas, they should be elevated above expected flood levels to reduce the chances of flooding and to limit the potential damage to the building and its contents when it is flooded.

c Ground Subsidence - Land subsidence is the lowering of the land-surface elevation from changes that take place underground. In many areas nowadays, ground subsidence problem persist which result from mining, underground fluid withdrawal, soil drainage etc. Ground subsidence is a silent disaster mainly in hilly terrain and the areas of active river erosion. Land subsidence causes many problems such as changes in elevation and slope of streams, canals, and drains; damage to private and public buildings etc. For such locations, after proper geotechnical study, foundations must be properly constructed, basements must be minimized and utility lines must be stress-resistant.

d Landslide – Landslides are a common phenomenon in hilly areas and is mainly caused due to unstable slope conditions as a result of erosion, earthquake, groundwater pressure etc. Proper care should be taken against such gravity-driven movement of earth material. To avoid this situation, stable slope sites should be selected, various retention structures should be constructed, soil reinforcement and groundcover plantation should be done.

7) India might face a severe water crisis in coming times, unless water management practices are changed/ improved on priority basis. India is blessed with adequate rainfall as a whole, yet there are large patches of dry, drought prone area. In many other places the quality of groundwater is not good. In such places rainwater harvesting can provide lifeline water for survival. Rain Water Harvesting is a way to capture the rain water when it rains, store that water above ground or charge the underground and use it later. This happens naturally in open rural areas. But in congested metropolitan cities, we need to create methods to capture the rain water. Rainwater harvesting system should be designed so as to provide adequate groundwater supply and recharge water into aquifers. Rainwater harvesting that maximizes rainwater use is a must for green homes.

8) Engineering geological and geotechnical investigations should also be carried out in order to be well aware of the physical and mechanical properties of soils and rocks present at the real estate construction site. Soil strength and quality are extremely important, so it is always advisable to study the area topology and soil map of the area.

Location, design and development are the keywords for environment sustainable property which is economically feasible and environmentally stable. Few more things which can be introduced are using eco-friendly alternative building materials like flyash, wood substitutes etc; have built-in refrigerators which rely on a centralized refrigeration facility; recycled grey water for flushing; gas banks on each floor to eliminate the presence of gas cylinders inside the homes; creatively use vegetation to keep home cool in summer and maximize the sunshine in winters etc. Constructing eco-friendly architecture and using alternate building materials will lead to ecologically stable environment, save cost and time too.

Architecture

Figure 1: Envinsa (Location Enterprise Platform)

Envinsa is the powerful location platform. Envinsa provides a broad suite of capabilities to help organizations solve a wide variety of business needs. Centrally managed and based on web services technology, Envinsa delivers precise and reusable functionality in a scalable, high-performance package. Envinsa allows developers to integrate location capabilities into existing enterprise applications using a single API, in virtually any development environment. Applications are easily deployed to a variety of platforms including web, wireless devices, portlets and more.(As shown in figure 1)

It provides a versatile, distributable, secure, standards-based platform for developers, enterprise users, service providers, and wireless carriers. Envinsa provides location enabled Web Services, a full-featured Software Development Kit (SDK), and a suite of tools that manage services, data, and maps.(As shown in figure 2)
Figure 2: Client Software Development kit

The Web services use a peer-to-peer framework. Services (peers) and resources (such as data) can discover and communicate with each other in one or more clusters called groups. Multiple groups of services can be configured to communicate with each other. Groups may be designated by geographic coverage (North America, Europe clusters), or by resources and processing requirements (Routing and Mapping clusters). As a result of this infrastructure, a service can forward a request to another peer service if it can't handle it.

Predictive analytics through Envinsa will involve both demographic and segmentation analysis. Demographic Analysis will provide descriptive characteristics of area like population, income, etc; and Segmentation Analysis will identify and group neighborhoods that share similar demographic, behavioral, and purchasing characteristics.

The Bottom Line
Predictive analytics will focus on area analysis based on demographic and census characteristics and will help locate the customers you wish to cater.

Environmental problems are of both national and global concern. They range from deforestation, ozone depletion, climate change, biodiversity protection, conditions of oceans and the riverbed etc. The greenhouse effect is inducing climate change, threatening island economies with possibility of rise in sea level. Climate change can also jeopardize agricultural production in developing countries.

"Sustainability" is avoiding pollution and minimizing use of non-renewable resources. It needs to be done right where we live. To achieve sustainability, eco-friendly homes are good option, which is not just money-saving, but even have an aesthetic beauty.

Eco-friendly concept requires appropriate sustainable architecture. The building and the people living there need to believe in the harmony of land and nature, and make it practical. High-energy efficiency and low maintenance will be ideal for such homes. Natural resources, such as sunlight, should be used to cut down on the use of electricity. Windows should be located at strategic places to enable sunlight in to save energy. Rainwater harvesting, solar water heating systems, water recycling systems and sewage treatment plants should be promoted by builders in their real estate projects. The homes should be designed with care to have excellent space efficiency and have natural lighting and ventilation.