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Potential future transportation infrastructure in South East Asia
 Michiro Kusanagi Visiting Professor, AIT, Thailand, E-mail: kusanagi.michiro@gakushikai.jp  Rajesh Bahadur Thapa Research Associate, AIT, Thailand, E-mail: thaparb@yahoo.com  Akira Kitazumi Senior Researcher, AIT, Thailand, E-mail: kitazumi@pop12.odn.ne.jp Abstract Globalization processes, economic integration and expansion of international trade have extended considerably the need for international transportation. World output grew in 2003 by 2.6% over 2002 where world sea borne trade recorded 6.17 billion tones in 2003 with annual growth rate of 3.7%. Strait of Malacca linking the Indian and Pacific Ocean is one of the busiest in several narrow channels around the world. Two-way traffic in the strait was recorded as 171 per day in 2003. Malacca route is passing refined and crude oil, iron ore, raw materials, readymade products and passengers west to east vice versa in daily basis. Continuing growth of traffics is plunging Malacca into environmental problems such as oil leakage and air pollution. Saving limited energy resources is another crucial thinking. To resolve these problems, a GIS based assessment has been done to make overall idea as a long-term solution. Sharing the one-way bound of Malacca route with the canal in Kra Isthmus, which has been studied since 19th century, will provide the flexible solution to the problem. Combining with super railway system from Singapore to southern China and with a dry-cargo-port for air transportation near by crossing of canal is under investigation at AIT. This integrated modern transportation system will save shipping distance, energy, cost and time. Due to one-way traffic in nature, ships collisions and mishaps will be reduced in the bottleneck passing of Malacca straits that will help to preserve the natural environment of surroundings. It is believed that such mode of transportations would enhance the Asian economy significantly. Detail feasibility study is needed for realizing the idea. 1. Introduction Mobility of people and freight from one place to another and information communication are becoming basic needs of human beings. Contemporary economic processes have been accompanied by a significant growth in mobility and higher levels of accessibility. Now, societies have been increasingly dependent on their transport systems to support a wide variety of activities ranging from traveling, supplying energy needs, to distributing products (Rodrigue, 2005). Globalization processes, economic integration and expansion of international trade have extended considerably the need for international transportation. International transportation is concerned with the highest scale in the mobility of freight and passengers with intercontinental and inter-regional movements by air, land and ocean using modern means of transportation. World output grew in 2003 by 2.6% over 2002 and expected to grow by 3.5% in 2004 (UNCTAD, 2004). Furthermore, world seaborne trade recorded 6.17 billion tones in 2003 where annual growth rate increased to 3.7%. The international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of 90% of world trade. Shipping is the backbone of the global economy. Intercontinental trade, the bulk transport of raw materials, and the import/export of affordable food and manufactured goods are depended on shipping (ShippingFact, 2005). For instance, consider the oil movement, a large volume of oil consumption occurs mainly in the industrialized countries, while oil production takes place largely in the Middle East, former Soviet Union, West Africa, and South America. Overall volume of seaborne crude oil trade increased by 3.4%. Average freight indices for VLCC/ULCC, medium-size crude carriers and small crude and product carriers increased by 83%, 68% and 55% respectively (UNCTAD, 2004). A significant volume of oil is traded internationally of which 66% of the world's oil trade (crude and refined oil) moves by VLCC's tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil per voyage. Tankers have made global (intercontinental) transport of oil possible because of low cost, efficient, and extremely flexible as compared to other means of transportation (EIA, 2004). The world trading fleet was made up of 46,222 ships, with a combined tonnage of 598 million gross tones (ShippingFact, 2005). Transportation by sea generally follows a fixed set of maritime routes (figure 1). Along the way, it encounters several narrow channels, such as the Strait of Malacca linking the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Persian Gulf. Other important maritime include the Bab el-Mandab passage from the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea; the Panama Canal connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans; the Suez Canal connecting the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea; and the Turkish Straits linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. Such narrow points are critically important to world trade because physically they are narrow and theoretically could be blocked temporarily and more susceptible to pirate attacks and shipping accidents.  Figure 1 UNCTAD reported the growth rates for merchandise trade measured in value for most of the Asian countries were impressive. The average export and import growth rates for 40 selected economies reached 14.8% in 2003. Asian countries are major players in world maritime transport, with sizeable shares in several activities. These countries accounted for 35.8% of containership ownership, 45.7% of containership operation, 60.4% of seamen, 62.3% of container port throughput, 64.7% of container port operators, 83.2 percent of containership shipbuilding and 99% of ship demolition. In addition to being one of the focuses of the main east-west shipping routes articulated around world port leaders such as Hong Kong (China) and Singapore, it is also focus of an intensive and significant intra-Asian shipping trade. 2. Situation of Sea Navigation in the Asia Pacific Region At present, the sea navigation between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea is using Malacca Strait (figure 2). It is a passage between Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula covering 900 km long distance with 350km to 3 km of wide. The shallowest depth of the straits is reported to 25 meters (Kuppuswamy, 2004). By the Malacca route, a big mass of refined and crude oil, iron ore, raw materials as well as readymade products are passing west to east vice versa in daily basis. The sea traffic passing by the strait was counted as 56 thousand, 153 per day in an average in 2000. The total figure was increased by 6 thousand setting a record of 171 traffics per day in 2003 (Table-1). Increasing growth patterns are observed in all traffic types. VLCC / DEPP Draft CR, Tanker Vessel, LNG / LPG Carrier, Cargo Vessel, Container Vessel, and Bulk Carrier are found major means of shipping transportation in the strait. Passenger vessels, government/navy vessel, fishing vessel, etc also use the route. Statistics show container vessels and tanker vessels are more prominent users of the strait.  Figure 2: Sea Navigation Asia-Pacific
*Include car carrier, passenger vessel, livestock carrier, TUG/TOW vessel, government/navy vessel, fishing vessel, etc. Source: Statistical Report (2005) 3. Environmental and Social Consequences Mitropoulos (2004) reported ship movements carrying one quarter of the world's commerce and half the world's oil pass through the Straits of Malacca each year. It shows the traffic is increasing heavily in Malacca Strait and Singapore seaport, which will continue next coming decades if unable to setup alternatives for sea navigation. At present, due to heavy traffic and crowdies, the strait is fascinating in big environmental problems, ships building and demolition, and oil spilling for example. In 2003, VLCC / DEPP Draft CR and Tanker Vessel are accounted for 10 and 43 per day in an average, respectively. These types of shipping means considered as sources of oil spills. Collision and oil spill are major environmental threat in the straits of Malacca. Oil spills happen more frequently in certain parts of the world. Oil Spill Intelligence Report 1999 listed Malaysia and Singapore as hot oil spill spots form vessel accounting as 39 cases since 1960 (UNEP, 2005). In 1993, the 255,312-ton Singapore-registered tanker Maersk Navigator collided with the empty tanker Sanko Honour in the Andaman Sea en route from Oman to Japan. It was carrying a cargo of nearly 2 million barrels of oil. Its ruptured port side leaked burning oil and spread a slick up to 35 miles (56 km) long off Sumatra drifting towards India's Nicobar Islands (Mariner Group 2005). Oil spills on water are devastating to the marine environment. Treasure accident can be taken as an example of oil spill and its impact on marine environment. In the early morning of 23 June 2000, the bulk ore carrier MV Treasure sank off western South Africa between Dassen and Robben islands, both are important for seabird areas. About 19000 oiled penguins were collected for cleaning, 150 died in the spot and about 2000 died within first month. In addition to African Penguin, other endangered seabirds were at risk from the Treasure spill (Crawford et al 2000). Not only oil, hazardous and poisoned chemical also transports via Malacca. It could be also an environmental problem if collided or sank. An Indonesian tanker laden with a toxic chemical has capsized off Malaysia's southern Johor state, just across from Singapore in 2001. The 533 ton MV Endah Lestari was on its way to East Kalimantan in Indonesia with some 600 tonnes of the poisonous industrial chemical phenol, and 18 tonnes of diesel. The toxic spill had killed thousands of fish and cockles reared in 85 offshore cages, and Singapore authorities have also warned its citizens to stay away from nearby waters. Officials said it would be tough to mop up the phenol, as it is soluble in water (Mariner Group 2005). Leaking oil in the sea and growing some social illness, as robberies are some prominent examples of socio-environmental degradation in the area. Total 325 cases were reported pirate attacks worldwide in 2004 where 110 cases were happened only in the Malacca (Gatsiounis, 2005; Sakhuja, 2005). Although, Malaysian, Indonesian and Singaporean governments are jointly patrolling for safe shipping, but the statistics reveals the security problems are still being unsolved. To help for solving environmental and social problems and unsafe shipping in the straits, we would like to make a global understanding by proposing one-way shipping route combining with modern means of transportation by land surface and air. The route must cross the proposed super trains (to be built) from Singapore to Central China and an airport as a dry cargo port nearby crossing the proposed shipping route. Furthermore, the route should be shortest than existing one. Because of folding growth in sea traffics in the straits, we believed that oneway-shipping route would help to reducing the future growing traffics and environmental problems in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia maintaining the economic growth as usual. Putting these consideration and assumptions together we have done a GIS based assessment in Indo-Chinese Peninsula in south Thai Isthmus. 4. A case study: Shortest route for sea navigation In this case study, we have done distance and time saving analysis using GIS techniques. Shipping distance has the impact in time and limited energy resources. Using the world shipping routes (figure 1), we assumed two junction points A in West and B in East as focal points of world east-west trades (figure 3). Currently, two routes are in operation one Malacca and the other Sunda. The Malacca route is most common and very busy for the east-west trade. The Sunda route is very long as compared to Malacca (table 2), which is unfeasible for world's giant traders like Hong Kong, China, Japan, South Korea and the Middle East countries. If we consider the points A and B, the Malacca route compared to Sunda saves the shipping distance of 1405 km for these countries. As a shortest route and facilities available in Singapore port, the Malacca straits become one of the world's busiest shipping routes.  Figure 3: Shipping routes - distance analysis
Becoming shipping route busy boosts the economy of surroundings but it also enhances the environmental and social problems as discussed earlier. As we see the 15% of growth rate in import and export in 40 selected Asian countries, where a significant share of maritime transportation is being used for handling. The growth is continuing in all associated sectors. The figures are showing Malacca strait is getting congested day by day with tremendous growth. It is very urgent to solve high demand of shipping traffic usage, increasing environmental and societal problems in Malacca straits. Therefore, we have tried to make a global understanding considering environmental constraints in Malacca and limited energy sources by proposing an alternative oneway shipping route passing through South Thai Isthmus to be built. It has to be newly created. The initial assessment computed distance of 1461 km between A and B points. The route shortens 766 km of distance and saves the time and energy resources for ongoing shipping trades between East and West. Oneway route will reduce ship collision risk to almost zero. That means oil spills will lower significantly. A simulation model of potential future transportation infrastructure for South East Asia is being developed. The model will bring all existing transportations means (sea, surface and air) together and integrate with modern safety measures. The model will help to make guidelines for preparing modern transportation system in south east Asia in future which will be sustainable environmentally as well as economically. The transportation system will enhance the economies of the countries depend on East-West trades including Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia in particular. It will be really helpful to Malacca straits in reducing ship collision, oil spills, and other potential environmental dangers. 5. Recent status in Thailand Some historical efforts seeking alternative shipping route for Malacca Straits were found in Thailand. The idea of constructing a shipping canal on the Southern Thailand to link Pacific and Indian Ocean had been started since King Narai, 300 years ago (ES 2002). There are lots of studies on the project have been done during the period and it has been considered many times under various cabinets. For instance, King Narai was the first one who suggested building a canal across the Kra Isthmus, requesting the French engineer De Lamar to conduct a survey to test the feasibility of connecting the existing waterway out of Songkla in the Gulf of Thailand to Marid (Myanmar). The Kra Isthmus, southern Thailand is narrower Isthmus in Thailand, which separates the Indian sea and the Pacific. About 300 year old dream to build a canal across this isthmus has been revived many times as in the mid-1950s, early 1970s, 1990s and 2000s. However, the project was dropped but it has surfaced periodically ever since After comparing different routes of canal, the TAMS (1973) suggested that the route Satun-Songkhla was the most suitable which is similar to the most recent research of MRI-GIF (Mitsubishi Research Institute and Global Infrastructure Fund, Japan). The MRI-GIF study proposed a king-sized canal to run from Satun to Songkhla near the Thai-Malaysian border capable of handling 150,000 dwt vessels going both directions and the construction of seaports and major industrial facilities at both ends of the canal (VIC 2002). The engineering suitability highlighted that the size and deep of canal should be 380 meters and 23 meters respectively. The study concluded as the canal project is feasible both in terms of economics and engineering but it needs detail study on canal alignment, environment, economics, engineering aspects to identify most suitable route including public hearing. It has been realized; the project is suitable for the present situation where it will contribute continuous development of Thai economy as well as society. 6. Conclusion Globalization processes, economic integration and expansion of international trade have extended considerably the need for international transportation. The international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of 90% of world trade where the seaborne trade is growing annually by 3.7%. Ship movements carrying one quarter of the world's commerce and half the world's oil pass through the Straits of Malacca each year. It is one the busiest narrow channels in the world. The strait passes refined and crude oil, iron ore, raw materials, readymade products and passengers west to east vice versa daily. Two-way traffic in the strait was recorded as 171 per day in 2003. Continuing growth of traffics is facing many challenges in environment and safe navigation such as oil spills, ships collisions, air pollutions and pirate attacks. The assessment shows a shortest route that shortens approximately 766 km of current shipping distance and saves the time and energy resources for ongoing east west shipping trades. Sharing the one-way bound of Malacca route with the canal in Kra Isthmus, which has been studied since 19th century, will provide the flexible solution to the problem in region. Combining with super railway system from Singapore to southern China and with a dry-cargo-port for air transportation near by crossing of canal is under investigation. If it is realized, it will be really helpful to Malacca straits in reducing congestion demand of shipping route, ships collisions, oil spills, and other potential environmental dangers. It is believed that such mode of transportations would enhance the Asian economy significantly. Detail feasibility studies in environmental impact, global economy, international relation, safety measures, construction and operation cost are necessary for realizing the idea. Acknowledgement This is one of the potential preliminary feasibility studies now in progress at AIT/RS&GIS group. We appreciate Dr. Tawatchai Tingsanchali, professor of Water Resources Engineering, SCE, AIT, Dr. Sompoch Puntavoungkor, Royal Thai Survey, Mr. Jun Nogami, AIT and KRA committee for inspiring us to write this paper. References:
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