Disaster Forecasts: A Relook

Saurabh Mishra
Assistant Editor
saurabh.mishra@gisdevelopment.net
The unprecedented number of lives lost during 2004 Asian tsunami warrented to find a system that could, if not predict, sound warnings after sensing the advancing disaster. The Early Warning Systems (EWS) was the name that became as popular as the disaster itself. Disasters don't go by boundaries; they rock regions. Such tendencies of the deadly phenomena made the voices grow further to demand for regional and, as a matter of fact, the global EWS. One, which can be seen as one of the initiatives of the UN, was the requisition by the Secretary General Kofi Annan for undertaking a global survey of capacities and gaps of the EWS around the world. The request came with a view to establishing a "worldwide EWS for all natural hazards based on existing national and regional capacity".
It was the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) that carried out the job in collaboration with a multi-party working group. The survey report named as 'Global Survey of Early Warning Systems' is 'An assessment of capacities, gaps, and opportunities toward building a comprehensive global Early Warning Systems for all natural hazards'. The online version of the report was made public at the Third International Conference on Early Warning, Bonn held in March 2006. The report is an attempt to analyse the world wide situation of the EWS and the warning lead times that are prevalent for various disasters. It looks EWS from multiple angles and perspectives. To get an insight of the whole document from the geo-spatial communities' frame, the report at several places recognizes the role of remote sensing and other earth observing technologies (mapping technologies) towards understanding the causes of various disasters and the ways to mitigate.
The major issues that the report highlights are -
- Making Disaster Management 'people-centered'
- Moving toward pre-disaster preventive strategies
- Efficient data compilation and its processing
- Unrestricted sharing of information within nations and also data exchanges across them
Certain facts from the report are compiled herewith and presented. The complete report is available online.
Monitoring and warning services
Practice and capacities in monitoring and warning systems
There have been continuous improvements in the accuracy and reliability of monitoring instrumentation, and in integrated observation networks particularly through use of remote sensing.
Hydrometeorological Hazards
International coordination is very well developed through the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and its 187 member countries, its 10 Scientific and Technical Programmes, three World Meteorological Centres and 40 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (all operated or supported by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, (NMHSs). The WMO global operational network supports observing, monitoring, detecting and forecasting hazards and the issuing of early warnings for weather-, climate- and water related hazards. The integrated Global Observing System (GOS) enables the systematic observation and collection of weather, climate and water information from around the globe, while the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) provides a network of continuously operating telecommunication facilities and centres connecting countries their NMHSs.