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GISdevelopment.net --> Proceedings --> Map Asia 2002 --> Keynote Sessions
Karl Harmsen Professor of Environmental Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, The Netherlands, and Director, Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP), Affiliated to the United Nations, Dehradun, India.
1. Introduction
Eradicating world poverty is the greatest challenge of our age, and the greatest weapon we have to fight poverty is knowledge.
James D. Wolfensohn, President, The World Bank (2002)
More than half the world population lives in South and East Asia. During the past half a century, Japan has developed into the second-largest economic power in the world, in terms of gross national income (GNI), and the fifth in terms of per capita income of its population. Other countries, such as the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Thailand are rapidly increasing their GNI well as their per capita incomes. In addition, India and, in particular, China are emerging as major economic powers in the region. At the same time, however, the largest number of absolute poor in the world, with a relative purchasing power below 1 dollar a day, live in South Asia, and poverty in the Asian region is widespread and persistent. Also, high population densities, limited natural resources, poverty in rural areas and rapid, often unbalanced economic development in urban areas result in increasing pressure on the natural resources in many countries and on the quality of the environment in the region. The objectives of this paper are (a) to highlight some of the trends in economic development as well as in environmental and natural resource management in the region that may be expected on the basis of data available from the World Bank (WB, 2000b) and (b) to indicate where knowledge, in particular, space science and technology (e.g., remote sensing) and geo-informatics, could play a role in developing options for poverty alleviation, sustainable management of natural resources, and for monitoring and improving environmental quality. 2. Materials and methods The present paper is largely based on the database compiled by the World Bank in association with a large number of United Nations and other international organizations and published annually in their World Development Reports and World Development Indicators. It is known that such global databases have several shortcomings. In fact, several of these are discussed at length in the World Bank reports. On the other hand, if one wishes to make comparisons between countries across one or more regions, one needs a standardized global database and the database compiled by the World Bank seems to be the only one that meets the criteria of a reliable, standardized global database. Nevertheless, it is understood that the significance of many of the numbers may be somewhat limited and therefore they are taken mainly to indicate trends and are not necessarily assumed to accurately reflect the true situation on the ground in the all of the countries concerned. The economies of the world are classified according to their per capita gross national incomes (GNI/cap) in low-, middle- and high-income countries. Low-income economies are those with a GNI/cap of $ 755 or less in 2000. Middle-income economies are subdivided in lower-middle-income (GNI/cap between $ 755 and $ 2,995 in 2000) and upper-middle-income economies (GNI/cap between $ 2,995 and $ 9,266 in 2000). High-income economies are those with a GNI/cap of $ 9,266 or more in 2000. For analytical purposes, the World Bank generally uses GNI as measure for income and GDP for output, throughout its reports. Gross national income (GNI) is the sum of value added by all resident producers plus any product taxes (less subsidies) not included in the valuation of output plus net receipts of primary income from abroad. Gross domestic product (GDP) at purchaser prices is the sum of the gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Value added is the net output of an industry after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. For further details of the methodologies and statistical methods followed by the World Bank, the reader is referred to the relevant World Bank reports (WB, 2000a,b). The World Bank follows a two-tier system for the regional classification of economies: at the highest hierarchical level the countries of the world are divided in high-income versus middle- and low-income economies, where the high-income countries are presented as one category, although in some cases a further distinction is made between countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and those that are not, or between countries participating in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and those that do not. At the next hierarchical level, the middle- and low-income countries are further classified according to regional groupings (see Table 1). The present paper will focus on two geographical regions: South Asia and East Asia & the Pacific. These two regions will be compared with the 3 high-income countries in the region: Australia, Japan and New Zealand. TABLE 1 : The world by regions, as used by the World Bank (WB, 2002b). All high-income countries are listed under 'high-income', either OECD or non-OECD. Medium- and low-income countries are listed by region. Only the countries marked with an asterisk (*) below are included in the tables in the World Bank report (WB, 2002b). Of these countries, Afghanistan, Hong Kong (China), Korea DR and Singapore (marked with **) are omitted from the following tables in the present paper, as data for these countries are often lacking.
It follows from Table 1 that none of the Pacific countries are included in the World Bank tables. Also, a few additional countries are omitted in the present paper, as they are less relevant or because data are largely lacking. However, these countries are included in the totals for the regions, given in boldface in the following tables, and therefore the totals by category do not simply represent the sum totals of the countries listed in the tables. The Republic of Korea is still classified as an upper-middle-income economy but its GNI/cap was $ 8910 in 2000, which is close to the limiting value of $ 9266, and thus in many respects its statistics resemble those of Japan more than those of the other countries in the region. The data in the tables included in this paper have been compiled from tables in World Bank (2000b), unless otherwise indicated. The choice of the parameters reflects the views of the author and the objectives of the present paper, but the original data have not been altered, other than rounding off some of the numbers or changing the units by one or more decimal places. 3. Characterization of the major economies in South and East Asia Some key indicators of the countries in South and East Asia are listed in Table 2. It can be seen that more than half the world population (3,210 out of 6,057 million people in 2000) lives in South and East Asia. Population densities are high, in particular in South Asia. As the rural population tends to concentrate in the river valleys and coastal plains, the actual rural population densities may be much higher. For example, the population density of China is 135 people per square km. With some 68% of the population living in rural areas, one would estimate the rural population density at some 90-95 people per square km. In reality, the rural population density is 691 people per square km of arable land, that is, a factor 7 higher (WB, 2002b, Table 3.1). Hence, on arable land, population densities may be very high, and the environment may be affected by heavy use of fertilizers, manure, biocides and machinery, or by narrow crop rotations, salinization of irrigated lands, and other side effects of intensive agriculture. On the non-arable lands, degradation of the environment may occur as a result of lack of vegetational cover, nutrient depletion and deforestation, resulting in enhanced water and wind erosion. TABLE 2 : Some key indicators of countries in South and East Asia (World Bank, 2002b, Table 1.1). All data refer to the year 2000. Population (pop) is the mid-year estimate for 2000 in millions of people. Surface area (surf) is a country's total area, including inland bodies of water and some coastal waterways, in thousands of square kilometers. Surface area differs from land area, which excludes bodies of water. Population density (pop dens) is midyear population divided by land area in number of people per square kilometer. Gross national income (GNI) is expressed in billions of US dollars. Countries of the entire world are ranked (GNI rank) in decreasing order of their GNI (from 1 to 201). GNI per capita (GNI/cap) is gross national income divided by midyear population in US dollars per head of the population. Countries are ranked (GNI/cap rank) in decreasing order of their per capita GNI (from 1 to 206). PPP-GNI/cap is per capita gross national income converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates, in dollars per head of the population. Countries of the world are ranked (ppp-GNI/cap rank) in decreasing order of per capita PPP- GNI (from 1 to 207).
Japan is the second largest economy of the world in terms of GNI, followed by China (#7), India (#12) and the Republic of Korea (#13). Per capita GNI is far below the world average ($ 5,170) and is particularly low in South-East Asia (Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam) and Nepal. Of the middle-income countries, only Korea (#54) and Malaysia (#84) are in the top 100 of the GNI/cap ranking, all others are in the lower half of the ranking. It may thus be concluded that poverty is still widespread in the region and this may be an obstacle for introducing improved environmental management, as the latter often require knowledge infrastructure, social organization, investments and access to markets, among others. It is well known that a per capita income of $ 440 in South Asia represents a higher purchasing power than the same income in the US. To account for these differences, a methodology has been developed to convert US dollars into "international" or "purchasing power parity" dollars (ppp$), which would then represent the same purchasing power in all countries of the world. These "purchasing power parity" conversion factors are country-specific and are reviewed periodically. For example, for India, the GNI/cap is $ 450, whereas the pppGNI/cap is ppp$ 2340, that is, a factor 5.2 higher. At the same time, the per caita GNI ranking does not change very much, from 159 (GNI/cap) to 153 (pppGNI/cap), as what applies to India, also applies to other countries in the region and worldwide. On the other hand, there are some noticeable differences: For the South Asia region, the per capita GNI is $ 440, whereas the pppGNI/cap is ppp$ 2240, that is, a factor 5.1 higher. In contrast, for Sub-Sahara Africa, the GNI/cap is $ 470 whereas the pppGNI/cap is ppp$ 1044, that is, only a factor 2.2 higher. This reflects, among others, that in South Asia many products are produced or manufactured locally and that the prices of these items are relatively low. In Sub-Sahara Africa, many products are imported (including processed food items, drugs, textiles) and thus their prices are relatively high, which reduces the purchasing power of the dollar in relative terms. Finally, it may be noted that many of the investments required to improve the knowledge and IT infrastructures (e.g., computer hard- and software) are in US dollars and cost practically the same in South or East Asia as they cost in the US. The ability of a country to develop the economy while improving environmental quality depends, among others, on the government finances and the funds available for rural development programs. It follows from Table 3 that government revenues, expressed as % of GDP, are relatively low in South and East Asia, well below the world average. In addition, many countries in South Asia are faced with high interest payments on current debts (of the order of 32% of current revenues), which further limits funds available for rural and other development programs. In addition, political tension and violence in the region results in high military expenditures in South and, in particular, East Asia, well above the world average. For example, assuming that government expenditure roughly equals current government revenue, a country like Pakistan would spend some 43% of its central government expenditure on interest payments and some 28% on military items, leaving some 29% for all other central government expenditure. Even though this calculation may need to be refined, it illustrates that interest payments and military expenditure can be a significant burden on central government budgets in the South and East Asian regions. TABLE 3 : Government finances, military expenditures and aid (World Bank, 2002b, Tables 4.11, 5.7 and 6.10). Current revenue (curr rev) includes all revenue from taxes, fines, fees, recoveries, and income from property or sales, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1990 and 1999. Debt is the entire stock of direct government, fixed term contractual obligations to others, outstanding on a particular date. Total debt (tot debt) includes domestic debt and foreign debt, and is not reduced by the amount of government claims against others, and is expressed as a percentage of GDP in 1999. Interest payments (int pay) include interest payments on government debt - including long-term bonds, loans and other debt instruments - to both domestic and foreign residents, and are expressed as a percentage of current revenue (%cr) in 1999. Military expenses (mil exp) cover military-related expenditures of the defense ministry and other ministries, and are expressed as a percentage of central government expenditure in 1992 and 1999. Net official development assistance (ODA) consists of disbursements of loans made on concessional terms and grants by official agencies of countries or multilateral institutions to promote economic development and welfare in developing countries, expressed as a percentage of GNI (%GNI) in 1995 and 2000. The 2001 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) measures perceived corruption in government and public administration on a scale of 10 (lowest level of perceived corruption) to 0 (highest level of perceived corruption) and is published annually by Transparency International (www.transparency.org).
Official development assistance (ODA) is significant in terms of % of GNI in some countries, e.g., Mongolia, Lao PDR and Cambodia (22.8-12.6 % of GNI), and in Nepal (6.9%) and Vietnam (5.4%), but is rather insignificant in countries such as India or China (0.2-0.3% of GNI). Hence, the larger countries in South and East Asia are pretty much on their own as far as combining economic development with sustainable environmental management is concerned. It may further be noted that after the end of the cold war ODA has declined steadily: during the 5-year period from 1995 to 2000 it declined from 68 to 58 billion $, that is, declined by 14.5%. It is unfortunate that the end of the cold war has not triggered a worldwide concerted effort to eradicate poverty and to implement the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, including articles pertaining to good governance and democracy. The concept that globalization and free market principles would eradicate poverty has not been proven successful in reality: absolute poverty has declined in many areas, but the gap between rich and poor countries, and between rich and poor people in low- and middle-income countries has increased in many countries. It thus seems that globalization and free market principles have to be supplemented by international efforts in concert with national government policies and programmes aimed at alleviating poverty, empowering women and weaker sections of the society, and protecting the environment. There do not seem to be universally accepted definitions for terms such as "good governance" and thus it may even be more difficult to agree on ways to measure such phenomena in practice. Nevertheless, the concept of "good governance" seems important for governments to be effective in implementing policies aimed at sustainable development and poverty alleviation. One effort to measure an important aspect of "good governance" is "the corruption perceptions index" , which refers to the levels of perceived corruption in government and public administration and is published annually by Transparency International (www.transparency.org). Although the significance of this parameter and the associated ratings is, obviously, not universally accepted, it is rather unfortunate that all countries surveyed in the South and East Asian regions (Table 4) score 5.0 or less on a scale of 10 (lowest level of perceived corruption) to 0 (highest level of perceived corruption). Whatever the significance of these data may be, it is unlikely that low scores on the CPI scale will help to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of central government programmes aimed at poverty alleviation. TABLE 4 : Rural environment, land use, inputs and productivity (World Bank, 2002b, Tables 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3). Arable land includes land defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops, meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. Land abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation or land that could be developed into agricultural land are excluded from the classification "arable land", which is expressed as a percentage of total land area (excluding water bodies). Per capita arable land (ar land/cap) is expressed in hectares (ha) per head of the total population. Permanent cropland is land cultivated with crops that occupy the land for long periods and need not be replanted after each harvest, such as cocoa, coffee, rubber fruit trees and vines. This category excludes land under trees grown for wood or timber, and natural grasslands not used for pasture. Irrigated land (irr land) refers to areas purposely provided with water, including land irrigated by controlled flooding, and is expressed as a percentage of total cropland, that is, the sum of arable land and permanent cropland. Fertilizer consumption (fert cons) measures the quantity of plant nutrients used per unit of arable land (kg nutrient per hectare). Cereal yield, measured in thousands of kilograms of grain (= metric tons) per hectare of harvested land, includes wheat, rice, maize, barley, oats, rye, millet, sorghum, buckwheat, and mixed grains. Production data refer to crops harvested for dry grain only.
4. Natural resources To characterize the state of the natural resources in South and East Asia, three broad areas will be touched upon: land use & agriculture, freshwater resources, and forests & biodiversity. 4.1. Land Use Arable land, as a percentage of total land area, has been fairly stable during the past 20 years (Table 4), and is much higher in South Asia (42.4%) than in East Asia (11.8%), reflecting relatively favorable terrain conditions and infrastructure development in South Asia, as well as high population densities and high demand for food. In much of East Asia, terrain conditions are less favorable (e.g., extensive mountain areas in China) or infrastructure is less developed and/or population densities are lower (e.g., Mongolia). The per capita arable land has declined quite dramatically in South Asia, from 0.23 ha to 0.16, that is, by about 30% in 20 years. This clearly increases the pressure on the land, as the same land area now has to feed a much higher population. The increased demand for food has largely been met by productivity increases per unit of arable land (and not by expanding the production area). Land under irrigation has increased in South Asia from 28.7 to 40.9% and fertilizer consumption has increased from 36 to 105 kg per hectare. The increased availability of water and nutrients, in combination with improved land and crop management, access to markets, etcetera, has resulted in significant increases in productivity, e.g., cereal yield increased from 1.51 to 2.28 mt/ha, that is, by some 50% in 20 years. Although the success of increasing agricultural productivity is quite clear, the future may be somewhat uncertain in this respect. Much of the increase in food production is realized under favourable conditions, e.g., of the Indo-Gangetic plain in South Asia: fertile, flat and deep soils, availability of irrigation water, and access to output markets, rural credit systems, agricultural inputs, improved technologies and extension services. In many of these areas the productivity tends to level off, that is, reaches a ceiling level. This is partly due to limitations imposed by environmental (e.g. radiant energy) or crop-genetic factors, but also due to factors that negatively affect productivity, such as the increased occurrence of weeds or resistant strains of pathogens, depletion of micronutrients in the soil, environmental pollution due to high levels of biocides used, or salinization and alkalinization of irrigated soils. Hence, much of the future increases in agricultural productivity may have to come from the rainfed areas, where most of the rural poor live abd where conditions are less favorable for agriculture: shallow soils on sloping land, little or no access to irrigation water, limited access to markets, improved technologies, rural credit or agricultural extension. Also, many soils in these areas have an intrinsically lower productivity than those in the alluvial plains, and thus there is less scope for increasing productivity and thus agriculture in these areas is doomed to remain a relatively marginal activity in economic terms. In addition, on the marginal lands there has to be more emphasis on soil and water conservation, conservation of biodiversity and, in general, the sustainable management of scarce resources. If these marginal lands are not carefully managed, there is an enormous potential for land degradation (if not total loss of the land) and loss of biodiversity. Hence, future increases in agricultural productivity may have to be increasingly realized in the more marginal environments, at an increasing cost per unit food produced to the society. That is, rather than food becoming cheaper, in relative terms, a trend we have seen for several decades, food may well become more expensive in future, if conservation of the environment in marginal production systems becomes a major development objective. 4.2. Freshwater resources Most of the countries in the region are well endowed with freshwater resources (Table 5). However, countries like India and Pakistan in South Asia, and China and Korea Rep in East Asia, are relatively low in per capita freshwater resources. In a country like India, the availability of water may become a problem, if the population increases and the annual freshwater withdrawal remains constant. However, the annual freshwater withdrawal in India is relatively low (2.6%) and thus there is considerable scope for increasing the freshwater resources available to agriculture, industry and for domestic use. The industrial water use in India is relatively low (1%), as compared to high-income countries (43%), and therefore it may well be assumed that water demand by industry will increase in India. Against this background it may be expected that, in India, annual freshwater withdrawal will have to be increased significantly to meet a more or less constant demand by the agricultural sector, an increased demand by the domestic sector and a strongly increased demand by the industrial sector. The increased use of water for industrial purposes may well be expected to result in an increase in water pollution from industrial sources and thus monitoring and conserving the quality of freshwater resources may become a major concern in the future. TABLE 5 : Freshwater resources (World Bank, 2002b, Table 3.5). Freshwater resources are expressed in billion cubic meters (109 m3) and refer to total renewable resources, broken down between internal flows of rivers and groundwater from rainfall in the country (intern), and from river flows from other countries (inflow). Per capita freshwater resources (/cap) are expressed in thousand cubic meters (103 m3) per head of the population. Data refer to 2000. Annual freshwater withdrawals refer to total water withdrawal, not counting evaporation losses from storage basins. Withdrawal data (tot) are expressed as a percentage of total available renewable freshwater resources (%tot) and are for single years between 1980 and 1999. Sectoral withdrawal data are expressed as a percentage of total withdrawal and are distinguished in agriculture (agric), industrial uses (ind) and domestic uses (dom). For most countries, sectoral withdrawal data are estimated for 1987. Withdrawals can exceed 100% of total renewable resources where extraction from non-renewable aquifers or desalination plants is considerable or where there is significant water reuse.
What applies to India may well apply to more countries in the region: demand for freshwater resources is likely to increase, in particular by the industrial sector. As a result, the quality of freshwater resources may have to be monitored very closely. In contrast to the previous case, a country like Pakistan, which si also quite low in per capita available freshwater resources, is withdrawing annually more than 60% of the available freshwater resources. Hence, in this case there is less scope for increasing the quantity of freshwater resources available for agriculture, industry and domestic use. Also, Pakistan depends quite critically on inflow of freshwater (2/3 of its total freshwater resources). Hence, in the case of Pakistan, emphasis may have to be placed on increasing the efficiency of the use of freshwater (e.g., irrigation) and on reducing losses during transport or storage (leakage, evaporation). 4.3. Forests and biodiversity Forests are important for timber and other forest products, but also as storehouses of biodiversity, for protection of the soil and the storage of water, and many other purposes. Unfortunately, the forest cover of the earth has declined significantly in the past decades, which has resulted, among others, in the loss of biodiversity, the loss of livelihood of many tribal people, soil erosion and land degradation in upland areas, increased occurrence of land slides, and increased floods in lowland areas, because of the lower water storage capacity of the upstream watershed areas and silting of rivers downstream. In many countries of the world, deforestation rates are now negative, that is, in these countries the forest area is increasing annually (Table 6). This applies in particular to the high-income countries, but also to countries such as China, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh. Nevertheless, the net annual loss of forest in South Asia is still 889 square km and in East Asia this is 7048 square km. Worldwide the loss is still some 90 thousand square km per year, mainly in South America and tropical Africa. TABLE 6 : Forests, biodiversity and nature conservation (World Bank, 2002b, Table 3.4). Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees, whether productive or not. It is expressed as thousand square kilometers (103km3) or percentage of total land area (%tot). Average annual deforestation rate (ann deforest) is expressed in square kilometers (km3) or percentage of total forest area (%) per year. Deforestation refers to the permanent conversion of natural forest area to other uses, including shifting cultivation, permanent agriculture, ranching, settlements and infrastructure development. Negative numbers indicate a net increase in forest area. Higher plants refer to native vascular plant species and are expressed in thousand species (103sp). Threatened species of higher plants (threat) are the number of species classified by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as endangered, vulnerable, rare, indeterminate, out of danger, or insufficiently known. Nationally protected areas (nat prot areas) are expressed in thousand square kilometers (103km3) and as a percentage of total land area (%tot) and refer to totally or partially protected areas of at least 1,000 hectares that are designated as national parks, natural monuments, nature reserves or wildlife sanctuaries, protected landscapes and seascapes, or scientific reserves with limited public access.
The number of higher plant species that are under threat is relatively low in East Asia (0-4%), and relatively high in South Asia (7.7% in India and 13.8% in Sri Lanka) and the high-income countries in the region (8.9-14.4%). In this regard it is somewhat unfortunate that the percentage of nationally protected areas in South Asia is relatively low (4.5%) as compared to East Asia (7.0%) and high-income countries (10.2%). Hence, south Asia may have to place more emphasis on conservation of biodiversity, for future generations of people, but also because of the economic interest that biodiversity represents, now and in the future. 5. Poverty and Environment Hunger and poverty - which are both a cause and an effect of global environmental degradation - are still appallingly pervasive in the developing world, where population growth compounds the problems of alleviating them. Industrial countries continue to be addicted to the patterns of production and consumption which have so largely produced the major risks to the global environment.
Maurice F. Strong, Secretary-General, UNCED (1992)
In Section 3 the issue of poverty was briefly discussed and it was concluded on the basis of the data in Table 2 that poverty is still widespread in South and East Asia. Now that the natural resources have been briefly characterized in Section 4 and Tables 4-6, the interactions between poverty and environment can be briefly touched upon. Although poverty occurs in both rural and urban areas, it is most widespread in the rural areas. Programmess aimed at alleviating poverty would therefore have to target the rural areas or, at least, pay due attention to these areas. As the poor are often living in the more marginal and remote rural areas, the challenge would be to create environmental management systems that improve on- and off-farm incomes in such fragile environments, while maintaining or improving environmental quality and conserving natural resources. It may be noted that "poverty" to some extent is a matter of definition and national and international systems for quantifying poverty may differ. The standardized system for measuring poverty used by the World Bank in its global surveys, estimates the proportion of people living on less than 1 or 2 dollars a day, expressed in "international dollars" or dollars at purchasing power parity (ppp$). The fractions of the population living on either 1 or 2 ppp$ per day are particularly high in South Asia, e.g., some 875 million people in India live on less than 2 ppp$ a day. It may be noted in this connection that the ppp$ in South Asia is a factor 5 higher than the US$, that is, the purchasing power of 1 $ in India is equivalent to approximately 5 $ in the US. Hence, an income of 1 ppp$ in South Asia represents an income of about 0.2 US$ a day. As many of the poor live in remote and marginal rural areas, poverty alleviation programs have to target such rural areas. As data on natural resources in such areas are often lacking, and physical as well as communication infrastructure is often rather poor in such areas, it is here that space technologies may be quite important. The occurrence and extent of natural vegetations as well as agricultural crops can be monitored and quantified by remote sensing techniques. Agricultural (biomass) production can be estimated on the basis of RS information and simulation models for the growth of agricultural crops, using actual and estimated weather data (such as those developed by the Space Applications Centre in Ahmedabad, India). Measurement of the heat balance at the surface of the earth may provide information on crop evapo-transpiration and thus on the availability of water to the crop or the efficiency of irrigation management. Also, several forms of soil degradation can be identified and quantified using remote sensing techniques. Although poverty is currently more widespread in the rural areas, the successful alleviation of poverty is likely to result in increased urbanization. Currently some 28% of the population of South Asia live in urban areas and some 35% in East Asia. Worldwide some 47% of the population lives in urban areas, whereas in high-income countries this is 79%. Employment opportunities outside the agricultural sector (industry, service sector) tend to be concentrated in urban areas and the same applies to medical care, educational facilities, information and communication facilities, and drinking water supply and sanitary facilities, among others. With urbanization and increased economic welfare come problems of increased pollution, for example, emission of carbon dioxide due to combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement. At present the number of motor vehicles in South Asia stands at 8 per thousand people. If this number would increase to the world average (176 per 1000 people) or the average for the high-income countries (610 per 1000 people), then problems of air pollution might well become quite dramatic in South Asia, not to mention problems of physical infrastructure (roads, bridges) and others. It may not seem realistic that South Asia would reach a level of 610 motor vehicles per 1000 people. But it will also be difficult to deny the people of South Asia the same rights as people have in high-income countries. In summary, poverty alleviation is on the top of the political agenda in many countries in South and East Asia. The successful alleviation of poverty is likely to result in urbanization and increased air and water pollution. The management of large urban areas requires large spatial databases as well as software and decision support systems to use such information for policy preparation, decision making and monitoring and management. Urbanization is likely to result in an increased demand for food, in terms of quantity and quality, and thus is only possible if the agricultural productivity (produce per unit of land) either dramatically increases and/or if the increased demand for food is met by imports. With lower rural populations, conservation of biodiversity and preventing degradation of land resources will require innovative thinking and technologies. 6. Modern technologies Indeed, the belief that there is a technological silver bullet that can "solve" illiteracy, ill health or economic failure reflects scant understanding of real poverty.
Mark Malloch Brown, Administrator, UNDP (2001)
It is generally believed that modern technologies, in particular, information and communication technologies (ICT), can play a significant role in the development of countries in South and East Asia. Similarly, space science and technology could play a role in areas such as natural resource planning and management, natural disaster relief and management operations, meteorology and weather predictions (e.g., cyclone warnings), surface water hydrology and management, urban planning and management, exploration of mineral resources, and other areas. The significance of these technologies and the extent to which they could play a role in the development process are still subject to discussion. In principle, there are two different aspects to these technologies. One is the information provided through these technologies to users in the South and East Asian regions, from urban areas to remote villages in rural areas. Information on expected weather conditions, crops and the occurrence of pests and diseases, market conditions and others, are of importance to users in rural areas. Information on the occurrence of plankton, and thus of fish, and of expected weather conditions (e.g., cyclones) are of importance to fishermen. Information on forest fires is of importance to forest managers. Accurate, real-time information on the occurrence of flooded areas is of importance in providing relief to the victims of flooding and in limiting the damage caused by floods to humans and property. Hence, it is clear that information obtained through remote sensing or other earth observation techniques, and transmitted through satellite communication systems can be of use to a large number of actors in the development process. The second aspect of modern ICT and space technology is that the technology itself becomes a source of economic development, in particular, in certain urban areas, where high-tech industries and services are clustered. The rapidly developing ICT clusters require skills and services and these requirements, in turn, catalyze the development of a knowledge-transfer sector (education and training) and service sectors. The data in Table 7 illustrate these trends. In a country like India, investment in the telecommunications sector, with private participation, increased hundred-fold from some 100 million $ during 90-94 to some 10 billion $ from 95-00. This is quite impressive indeed. It may be noted though that other countries in Asia also invested significantly in the telecommunications sector during the same period, e.g., China invested some 6 billion $ during 95-00, Indonesia 9.6 billion $ and Korea Rep some 17 billion $. Although some people, involved in the ICT sector, in their enthusiasm may think that ICT will solve many, if not all, of the developmental problems of Asia, there are several limitations to this view. One is that there are some 1.4 billion people in South Asia and therefore all “per capita” numbers have to be divided by 1.4 billion, which reduces the size of most numbers to rather modest proportions. For example, although the number of telephone connections, main lines as well as mobile phones, has increased significantly in South Asia in the past decade, the current per capita numbers stand at 27 main lines and 3 mobile phones per thousand people in South Asias, as compared to 604 main lines and 532 mobile phones per 1000 people in high-income countries. Hence, there still is a significant gap between South Asia and the high-income countries. Similarly, the per capita numbers of personal computers stand at 4 per 1000 persons in South Asia and 22 in East Asia, as compared to 393 per 1000 people in high-income countries. The total number of people with access to Internet stands at 5.4 million in South Asia, 51.9 million in East Asia (mainly China and Korea Rep) and at 366 million people worldwide. Hence, South Asia seems to be somewhat lagging behind, even though enormous progress has been made in the past decade. Although it may be too much to refer to these phenomena as a “digital divide”, there certainly is still a large technological gap between the high-income countries and South and East Asia. Another factor to consider is the structure of the ICT sector in South Asia: the sector employs a large number of people but their productivity is relatively low as they are mainly involved in production- or service-type activities. Most of the patented hard- and software is still produced by the high-income countries, even though scientists and professionals from countries in Asia may do much of the actual work. This is also reflected in the royalty and license fees paid and received by the different regions: South Asia receives .09 and pays 0.34 billion $ and East Asia receives 0.78 and pays 5.41 billion $, and these are undiluted US dollars, not “international” or “ppp” dollars! The only country in the region where there is some balance between amounts received and paid in royalties and license fees is Japan: 10.23 billion $ received versus 11.01 billion $ paid. The only country in the world that really benefits from this system is the US: 38.03 billion $ received versus 16.10 billion $ paid in 2000, that is, a positive balance of some 22 billion $. It is clear that the gap between the performance of the US in this respect and South and East Asia on the other hand is quite large and it is unlikely that this “technology gap” will be bridged in one or two decades. TABLE 7 : Telecommunications (World Bank, 2002b, Tables 5.1, 5.9 & 5.10, 5.11). Investment in the telecommunications sector with private participation (invest tele sect) refers to all investment (public and private) in projects in which a private company assumes operating risk during the operation period or assumes development and operating risk during the contract period, and covers infrastructure projects in telecommunications that have reached financial closure and directly or indirectly serve the public. Investment is expressed in $ billions (109$). Royalty and license fees (roy lic fees) are payments (paid) and receipts (rec) between residents and nonresidents for the authorized use of intangible, non-produced, non-financial assets and proprietary rights (such as patents, copyrights, trademarks, industrial processes and franchises) and for the use, through licensing agreements, of produced originals of prototypes (such as manuscripts and films). Fees are in $ billions (109$). Telephone mainlines (telephone main) are telephone lines connecting a customer's equipment to the public switched telephone network. They are expressed in number of mainlines per 1000 people (10-3pp). Mobile phones (telephone mob) refer to users of portable telephones subscribing to an automatic public mobile telephone service using cellular technology that provides access to the public switched telephone network, and the number is expressed per 1000 people (10-3pp). Personal computers (pc) are self-contained computers designed to be used by a single individual, per 1000 people (10-3pp). Internet users (internet) are people with access to the worldwide network, in millions of people (106).
Other factors to consider here are income distribution and education. The income distribution of most of the low-income countries is rather uneven: the majority of the population is poor and a small fraction is “middle-class” or rich. For example, in Malaysia, the richest 10% of the population receives 38.4% of the income, whereas 90% of the population share the remaining 61.6% of the income. Similarly, in India, the richest 20% of the population receives 46.1% of the income and the richest 10% receives 33.5%. On the basis of this information, it is difficult to say whether “the rich” make up 5, 10 or 15% of the population, but 10% may be a reasonable estimate: 86.2% of the people in India live on less than 2 dollars (ppp) a day, hence the segment of “rich” people is lower than 13.8%. Along the same lines, some 26 million people in India pay income tax. For families of 4 this would amount to some 100 million people or some 10% of the population. Of course, more accurate information on income distribution is available, but at the same time the definition of “middle class” or “the rich” is somewhat fluid. Education is still a problem in many areas of Asia. In 2000 the illiteracy rates were 34% for men and 57% for women in South Asia and 8% for men and 29% for women in East Asia. Although progress has been made in the past decade, it is unfortunate that more than half the women in South Asia continue to be illiterate. This will certainly hamper their emancipation and their ability to benefit from ICT and other technologies. In addition to illiteracy, there is the issue of a limited number of school years. The average number of years of formal schooling received by all adults ages 15 years and over was 3.4 for females and 5.8 for males in South Asia, as compared to 9.8 for females and 10.2 for males in high-income countries. 7. Conclusion In summary, it appears that there is potential for an ICT and space technology sector in South and East Asia, in which the technology itself is produced in high-tech clusters in certain urban areas, where per capita incomes and educational levels are high, and where knowledge transfer and service sectors are available in the vicinity of the high-tech clusters. These clusters are networked within Asia and with high-tech areas elsewhere in the world, e.g., Silicon Valley. Although many of these high-tech clusters will do production work for, or provide services to companies in high-income countries, they also provide a basis for the dissemination of the benefits of ICT and space technology to the low-income populations of the countries in Asia. Most of the poor live in the rural areas and much of the information required will be linked to the management of natural resources, weather predictions, market conditions, the incidence of pest and diseases, the occurrence of natural disasters I(including drought) and, possibly, distance education or knowledge transfer aimed at empowering the weaker sectors of the society. A strategy for rural development will require a dual strategy: one for the favorable production areas, aimed at producing cheap and safe food for an urban market in a sustainable fashion, and the other for the less favorable production areas, aimed at conserving natural resources and biodiversity and developing sustainable production practices, primarily for rural markets with some spillover to urban markets. These different strategies will require different types of spatial information and different types of systems for the handling of spatial information, including the transfer of knowledge through satellite communication systems, the visualization of such information and appropriate decision support and management support tools. Finally, the role of institutions in the development process should be stressed: “Effective institutions can make the difference in the success of market reforms. Without land-titling institutions that ensure property rights, poor people are unable to use valuable assets for investment and income growth. Without strong judicial institutions that enforce contracts, entrepreneurs find many business activities too risky. Without effective corporate governance institutions that check managers' behavior, firms waste the resources of stakeholders. And weak institutions hurt the poor especially. For example, estimates show that corruption can cost the poor three times as much as it does the wealthy” (James D. Wolfensohn, World Bank, 2002a). Institutions and related mechanisms may be of crucial importance in the development process and should complement technologies all the way from the conceptualization and production stages to the final dissemination to the end-users. 8. References
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