Map India 2000 - Keynote

Abstract
The Internet is changing everything and imaging is no exception. While the last five years have witnessed an impressive growth in the use of aerial and satellite imagery, the real explosive growth that the Internet will facilitate is only just beginning. While the inherent value of imagery has not changed substantively in this period, the audience demanding imagery has broadened, the nature of supply has shifted from contract photography to data merchandising, and the enabling technologies in digital and Internet imaging have removed many practical impediments to access and utilization. This paper reviews the state of digital imaging, emerging technologies for Internet imaging, trends in imagery data acquisition and the implications for GIS and Mapping professionals.

On the Cusp of an Imaging Revolution:
The disruptive technologies of the past two decades testify to the rapid pace of change as we begin the new millenium. The PC has changed the way we live and do business, and has created many of the world's leading companies. The Internet revolution is only just beginning, yet in its five-year history the Internet already has a similar story. It is numbing to think that Microsoft, Intel, Dell, and Oracle did not exist twenty years ago. AOL, Amazon.com, and Yahoo have yet to turn ten.

Many believe that the digital camera, and all that it portends, represents the same type of disruptive advance. Shipments of digital cameras are expected to reach 3.6 million units in 1999 and grow at an annual rate of at least 36% over the next three years. This estimate may be conservative; growth will likely be exponential once quality is improved, cost reduced, and the user experience simplified.

The digital camera, digital image, and Internet are entirely complimentary and intertwined technologies. The Internet is highly visual and only bandwidth restricts more extensive and creative use of images by businesses than is already seen today.

Considering consumers, InfoTrends notes that in 1999 approximately 25% of U.S. households owned a scanner. The majority of these users utilize community, film processor, photo sharing, photo portals, and vendor Internet sites to share photos. In 1999, they estimate users of online Web album sites shared photos with nearly 100 million viewers.

Dataquest predicts that the market for consumer photo editing software will grow from a mere $300,000 in 1995 to well over $400 million by 2002. Even for a market in its infancy, these numbers are staggering.

But, even so, this activity only scratches the surface. Kodak estimates that 82 billion pictures are taken each year adding to an already immense personal and professional archive. Clearly, to realize the full potential of products and services related to the digital image requires an imaging infrastructure integrated into, and architected for, the Internet.

The mass adoption of the digital camera will have a profound effect on the way images are captured, shared and used. Many believe that within five years film will be all but obsolete, and that the digital camera will become ubiquitous. It will also take many forms beyond the traditional hand-held camera, such as hybrid video/still cameras, Internet cameras and embedded devices. The ease of image capture will fuel intense demand from consumers and businesses for Internet enabled imaging technologies, products and services.

Taking Stock of the State of the Art
The Internet has changed everything. Yet, the medium is crude by any measure. As HTML gives way to XML, as base bandwidth expands and as the infrastructure is improved, the focus will turn away from crude mimicking of existing mediums to the richness of the experience and the integrated and dynamic use of imagery, voice, video, and other data.

The digital camera will change everything about how images are captured and used, and the Internet will be an integral factor to its evolution. Like any disruptive technology, the initial enthusiasm gives way to diminished expectations as the reality of removing technical impediments sets in. This momentary pause obscures the market dynamics and results in a gross underestimation of the impact of the technology. We are at about this point with the digital camera.

The digital camera will make film based cameras obsolete. Every family will own one, and businesses will use them with greater frequency than was ever the case with analog cameras. To gain significant momentum, two things must occur. First, digital cameras superior and easier to use than 35mm cameras must sell at similar or lower price points; this inflexion point could be reached as early as 2001. Second, the consumer experience for digital images needs to improve dramatically, including home printing and retail and Internet photo services; like Internet bandwidth, the incentive and inertia to solve these issues will be driven by the demand created by volume adoption of the cameras.

This emerging market will be huge, and it will create demand for imaging software of all types. It will be difficult to distinguish the infrastructure from the client solutions; they must work together to realize the full potential of digital imaging over the Internet.

Imaging Market Trends:
Any current quantification of the market for digital imaging and Internet imaging software will obscure the dynamic and explosive growth that can be anticipated as the Internet matures and the digital imaging revolution unfolds.

According to Michael Foss, General Manager of Consumer Digitization and Vice President of consumer Imaging at Kodak, of the 82 billion pictures taken every year, only 2% of these pictures are ever reprinted or reused. Foss believes that the opportunity with digital images is not only to convert some of this massive volume and historical inventory of analog prints to digital form, but also to increase the usage rate at which images are reused or repurposed.

This transition from film-based photography to digital photography is already underway worldwide. According to InfoTrends Research Group, Inc.'s 1999 Low End Digital Camera Forecast Worldwide Summary, "Though the complete transition is still many years away, it is happening in all market segments, including youth, consumer, and business.

InfoTrends believes that "online photo sharing is the next hot Internet application" and expects the number of sites and volume of photos to grow exponentially. They state that the essential factor to the success of each of these sites is "an adequate technical infrastructure not only at the time of launch, but as the number of viewers and stored photos grows".