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Forecasting a Development Scenario for Makkah Using High-Resolution Satellite Imagery
Dr. Fred Ernst
GIS Expert
Development Commission for Makkah, Madina and the Holy Sites,
Saudi Arabia
Email: fred.ernst@gtz.de
Dr. Nasr Al-Sahhaf
GIS Project Manager
Development Commission for Makkah, Madina and the Holy Sites
Email: nalsahhaf@yahoo.com
One of the tasks for the Development Commission for Makkah, Madina and the Holy Sites is to coordinate the development in this region with all relevant organizations in order to secure a fulfilling experience of visitors and pilgrims to Makkah, Madinah and the holy sites. As a major tool for this task an enterprise GIS is in the process of implementation. Within the framework of this GIS a pilot study has been carried out to show a development scenario for Makkah. The aim of this study is to compare the most recent extent of settlements with a status to be expected within a period of 25 years under the condition that no further intervention will take place. Current boundaries of settlements have been detected using satellite data. Based on population density, total number of pilgrims and expected population and pilgrimage growth potential urban growth has been computed. Limitations of the used methodology are discussed and needs for further research are outlined.
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