How would the population growths affect the water resources in Dubai, United Arab Emirates? Ahmed A. Murad Presenter ahmed.murad@uaeu.ac.ae Hind S. Al Nuaimi Department of Geology Faculty of Sciences Arab Emirates University P.O.Box: 17551, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates Abstract Water is an essential input to sustain the society development in Dubai Emirate, United Arab Emirates (UAE). Dubai is situated to the north of the UAE on the Arabian Gulf. Due to its political stability and strong economy, people are continuing to immigrate to Dubai. This regular immigration will enhance the stress on water resources. Therefore demands for water will increase significantly in Dubai. The scarcity of water resources in Dubai is evident. The total production of water in the Emirate of Dubai has increased to 61,478 million gallons in 2004. About 58,808 million gallons has been produced from the desalination plants in 2004. The production of freshwater from the main aquifers is about 2,763 and 2,655 million gallons for the years 2003 and 2004 respectively. The reduction of groundwater in 2004 may be ascribed to the low amount of rainfall and to the decreasing capacity of the aquifers. Treated wastewater is another source for water whose quantity was increased from 72 m3 to about 107 m3 in 2000 and 2004 respectively. It is observed that the water resources in Dubai Emirate rely mainly on desalinated water and then treated wastewater. Due to the location of the country in an arid zone, the groundwater resources are limited. Moreover, major problems related to the water resources have appeared and affected the development in Dubai. These problems include: lowering water level and groundwater deterioration. This paper is aimed to assess the impacts of population growth on water resources in Dubai. Introduction:- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is classified as a water scarce country which the yearly share per capita of water resources is less than 1000 m3. The arid climate in the country in general and particularly in Dubai limits the conventional water resources. The rainfall is sparse and evaporation rate is high. This leads to great deficit in the water supply. Water resources in Dubai can be classified into groundwater stored in main aquifers, desalination of seawater and brackish water, and treated wastewater Dubai has a long history of interest in trade in the Arabian Peninsula. Political stability in the country in general leads to launch heavy economical activities in the area [1]. Due to rapid development in industrial and agricultural sectors, continuous and regular immigration to Dubai has been increased significantly, which is accompanied with advancement in living standard. Also, a drastic movement in population from rural to urban areas has occurred. These developments in all sectors rely mainly on water resources availability. As a result of water demands growth in the Emirate, the water stress is heavily increasing and is continuing to accelerate. Population in Dubai has been increased over the last few years. Water will be the most likely cause of conflict in the Middle East countries. The number of people living in Dubai is anticipated to increase, and housing projects in the city will require additional water supply. In addition to that, food security concern is growing with increasing population. This will lead to increase water supply for agriculture uses, which will be the largest water user in order to meet the objective of food self-sufficiency. Increasing cultivated areas in the Emirate will result in falling water table, deterioration of groundwater quality and introducing seawater intrusion. The vast expansion of population will magnify the shortage of water resources in the Emirate because high-quality drinking water is essential for these people. The Emirate of Dubai will worry about how they will find sufficient quantity of water for each person living in the Emirate and a great anxiety in how they will provide a suitable amount of water for rapid economical activities witnessed in the Emirate. This study focuses in reviewing the water resources in the Emirate and assessing the impacts of population growth on water resources and future economical development in the Emirate of Dubai. This assessment will help the decision makers with a basis for future management and planning. Physical Setting:- The Emirate of Dubai is open to the Arabian Gulf and situated to the north of the UAE, which is located to southeastern part of the Arabian Peninsula. Dubai is considered the second largest Emirate after Abu Dhabi. The length of Dubai coastline is about 70 Km which consisted of sandy beaches backed by dunes. The climate in Dubai is extremely arid with low rate of rainfall and high rates of evaporation. The availibity of water resources in Dubai is based on rainfall amount. This situation will limit the conventional resources of water to groundwater which reduced drastically due to heavy consumption. The rainfall in Dubai is inadequate and irregular in space and time. About 90% of the rainfall amount occurs during winter and about 60% of the rainfall received in February and March [2]. Spring and summer may also witness occasional intense periods of rain [3]. Small storms can produce rainfall during the summer season during July and August, but usually this precipitation evaporates in the atmosphere before it reaches the ground [4]. The rainfall quantity in Dubai varies from 8.8 mm in 2001 to 271.7 mm in 1997, which is considered the heaviest year during 1997-2004. Most of the rainfall occurs in December, January and February. But in some occasions, the rainfall could occur during March and April [5]. The number of rainy days varies from 26 days to 3 days per a year. It has been observed that with increasing number of rainy days, the amount of rainfall is increasing. The surface water is absent or minimal and it is only occurred during intense period of rainfall. The average temperature ranges from 13.3 °C to 43.4 °C with an average of 28.35 °C. The lowest temperature is recorded in January, while the highest temperature in August. The mean relative humidity ranges from 14% to 90%, with an average of 52%. The lowest mean relative humidity recorded in the city is in June of 2004. The highest mean relative humidity is recorded in December of 1998. The surface wind speed ranges from 11to 56 Knot/hour, with an average of 38.5 Knot/hour. The lowest wind speed was recorded in December of 1999, while the highest wind speed was recorded in October of 2000 [5]. Dubai occupies an area of 4,043 Km2, with annual steady increase in population. Water Resources Assessment:- The assessment of water resources in Dubai will be focused on aquifers, desalination and treated wastewater plants. The demands for water are continuously increasing to meet the heavy demands of the giant projects which have been launched recently in the Emirate. Water for domestic, agricultural and industrial practices is provided by Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA) and Dubai Municipality. DEWA is producing water from major aquifers and desalination plants, while Dubai Municipality is producing water from treated wastewater plants. The total installed capacity for desalination plants and wells is growing with time. This capacity was 188 and 41 million gallons per a day in 2003 respectively. In 2003 and 2004 the total water production was 55, 968 and 61,478 million gallons respectively which had been produced by DEWA. Of that, about 95.1% produced from four desalination plants, where about 4.9% produced from 206 wells of major aquifers in 2003 (Table 1). In the following year, the percentage of desalinated water increased to 95.6% and groundwater production decreased to about 4.4% which was produced from 317 wells. This might be attributed to heavy consumption of groundwater that had been reduced drastically in Dubai. This caused an imbalance between the recharge and discharge. Also, this is due to the fact that the groundwater is limited in the Emirate, and in any case insufficient for uses. It is obvious that number of drilled wells is increased significantly and this might be ascribed to the reduction of groundwater quantity, dryness of some wells and searching for new wells that have suitable amount of freshwater to meet demands increase. Also it is clear that the natural freshwater supply will be dependenent on desalinated water. The municipal domestic water is used for drinking, and needs in households and accounts for about 61% of the total water consumption in 2004. About 22% and 5% account for commercial and industrial uses respectively, while 12% utilized for other purposes [6]. Surface water as a source for water is limited because it mainly depends on rainfall and Dubai has scanty and irregular rainfall. The yearly amount of rainfall in the city ranges from 8.8 mm to about 271.7 mm [5].  Treated drainage water provided by Dubai Municipality is used mainly for irrigation purposes such as gardens, parking, golf courses and highways. The total treated water is continuously growing. It has been increased from 53 million m3 in 1997 to 107 million m3. It is clear that the percentage of water used for irrigation purposes increased from about 84.9% in 1997 to about 91.67% in 2000. Then this percentage started to decrease in 2001 and reached 57.9% in 2004. The main reason for that is implementing modern irrigation system with time. These systems of irrigation have the ability to reduce the amount of water used for irrigation. The remaining of treated wastewater is either used for groundwater recharge or saved it for future use. As observed from above discussions, the groundwater resources are reducing with time and the city mainly covering the deficits from desalinated water and treated wastewater. Dubai will continue providing sufficient amount of water for industrial and agricultural developments and self-sufficiency of food and increasing the standard of living from cost effective techniques. There are intentions from the government of Dubai to find alternative and cheap techniques for desalination plants. Population growth and water resources:- Significant shift in population from rural to urban areas is expected in Dubai city. In 2004, the number of people living in Dubai was 1,070,779 [7]. About 24% was the increase of population from 2000 to 2004. Eventhough, the percentage of annual increase of the population is different from one year to another (Fig. 1). The main reason for this difference is the difference in the economic growth. Also the population growth in the Emirate of Dubai from 2000 until now is changing slightly due to the restrict regulations of immigrations in UAE.  Figure 1: Population of Dubai from 1975 to 2004 [7] & [8]. The increase in the population corresponds to the increase the demand of water in the Emirate which heavily stresses the availability of water resources for living people and industrial activities. The water produced in the Emirate as seen from table 2 is increasing steadily to meet the demand of water. It is evident that the desalinated groundwater and treated water is increased significantly annually. This might be due to the fact that the growth of population had affected the water resources. Some years witnessed a slight increase in groundwater production, while other years witnessed a decrease in the groundwater production. The total production of water in the Emirate of Dubai is sharply increasing and this might be attributed to the economical development in the Emirate which had been developed due to the population growth. The percentage of increase in water production in the Emirate from 1999 to 2004 was about 53.2%. In other hand, the groundwater production is not related to rainfall amount. This means that the severe withdrawals of groundwater will deplete and reduce the availability of water in major aquifers.  ** Dubai Municipality. Looking to water produced from wells and desalination plants by DEWA, the annual production is exceeding the annual consumption of water ( Table 2 & Fig. 2).  Figure 2: Annual water consumption (million gallons) in Dubai Emirate. Subtracting total water production from the water consumption and the result is the reserve or unused water. It is obvious from the annual reserve and groundwater production that the reserve is exceeding the groundwater production (Fig. 3).  Figure 3: Groundwater production (million gallons) and reserve water (million gallons) in Dubai Emirate. Even if the production is increasing annually, then the reserve is increasing accordingly and groundwater is reducing significantly in the area because the groundwater recharge is based on the amount of rainfall in the area. This has advantage and disadvantage signs. The advantage is a good sign for saving quantities of water for emergency case and for any unplanned development. But these reserve quantities are not adequate for all population and other economical activities. Also the reserve water if not used during the year, then it is better to recharge this water to underground to increase the water level and to improve the quality of groundwater. While the disadvantage is depleting the groundwater. In order to save the groundwater, it is highly recommended to reduce or stop the groundwater production because of excess in desalinated water production. Continuing pumping groundwater will degrade the quality of groundwater due to seawater intrusion. At this point, a special treatment before the use is required. This treatment is costly and time-consuming. Current per capita of water resources for Dubai Emirate can be calculated from total production of desalinated and groundwater in each year attributed to the total population according to the following equation: SPC (m3/yr) = [Qyear/Nyear], where Qyear is the production at certain year and Nyear is the population at that year. Applying the previous equation, the share per capita varies from 195 in 2000 m3 to 217 m3 in 2004. If population in the previous equation is replaced by number of consumers of water produced by DEWA, the share per capita ranges from 951 m3 in 2001 to about 1030 m3 in 2004 (Fig. 4). This variation in share per capita is basically related to the increasing in water production and population growth. It is observed from the figure 6 that the share per capita in case of the total population is more than that in the case of number of consumers. This clearly related to the fact that the number of consumers is less than total population. The real figure of share per capita which reflect the real situation, is the total population considered. Based on above figures, the water scarcity of Dubai is very high (Group III) [9] when the total population is considered, and it is moderate to high when number of consumers is considered.  Figure 4: Annual share per capita (m3) in Dubai Emirate. Conclusions:- Water resources in Dubai Emirate are facing intensive threats from economical development and population growth. Annual water production is increasing significantly in the Emirate to meet the demand. Desalinated water and treated wastewater have been increased with increasing the population to meet the deficit in groundwater production. Also, it is clear that the annual water production is exceeding the annual water consumption. Groundwater production is less than the reserve water produced by DEWA. Thus, groundwater can be saved from pumping to increase the quality and quantity of major aquifers in the area; and the Emirate should rely mainly on the desalinated and wastewater to provide adequate quantity of water for different uses. Based on share per capita of water availability, the water scarcity in Dubai is very high to moderate dependent on the total population and the number of consumers used in the equation of share per capita. Acknowledgments:- We would like to extend our thanks to Dubai Electricity & Water Authority for providing us the data. Also, we extend our thanks to Prof. Haydar A. Baker, Geology Department, College of Science, United Arab Emirates for his critical review. References:-
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