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Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology
The first known record of this kind of earthquake precursor is the Chronicle of Lon-De
County, China, 381 years ago (recompiled in 1935): "It was sunny and warm; the sky was
blue and clear. Suddenly, there appeared threads of black clouds spanning the sky like a
long snake. The clouds stayed for a long time, so there would be an earthquake" (1). The
predicted earthquake was the magnitude 7.0 Guyuan (36.5 N, 106.3 E), Ningxia province
earthquake on Oct. 25, 1622. It was the only big one in Western China (< 110 E) within
148 years from Jul. 26, 1561 to Oct. 13, 1709 (2), so this prediction is remarkable.
This method was recently revived in Japan and China. On the morning of Mar. 6, 1978
Kagida, the former mayor of Nara city, Japan, predicted the 7.8 Kantow earthquake on
Mar. 7 by the clouds (1). He also proposed that the epicenter of an earthquake would be
located in the mid-perpendicular plane of the clouds, which later proved to be incorrect.
Following this successful prediction, there was a brief period of activity in the scientific
communities in China and Japan. Three kinds of earthquake clouds: rope-shaped, ribshaped
(we denote it wave-shaped), and radiation-shaped, were announced.
Unfortunately, the connection between clouds and earthquakes faded from view after
1985.
On the other hand, Shou made his first earthquake prediction in Hangzhou (30.25N,
120.17E), China by a long line-shaped cloud with a tail pointing in the northwest
direction on Jun. 20, 1990. 18 hours later, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Iran, and
killed or injured 370,000 people. Because the earthquake was the only one bigger than 7
to the northwest of Hangzhou for 333 days from May 31, 1990 to Apr. 28, 1991, He
believed that there must be a strong relationship between the cloud and the earthquake.
As long as the epicenter was not located by Kagida's law, but on where the cloud's tail
pointed toward, He believed that the method of earthquake clouds should not have been
abandoned.
Over the last 10 years, with the aid of satellite weather images available on the internet
(@ 2-10) Shou has observed similar correlations in sufficient numbers to enable the
development of a successful earthquake prediction method. He has used this method to
generate 50 independent predictions certified by the United States Geological Survey
(USGS), of which 36 were correct. We will describe a model to explain the correlations,
a statistical analysis of the set of predictions, and prospects for improving the both
precision and reliability of the predictions.
Earthquake Cloud Model
Shou first proposed a model for the formation of earthquake clouds (2). When a huge
rock is stressed by external forces, its weak parts break first and small earthquakes occur.
For example, the Southern California earthquake data (@11) show that small shocks
happened before and around all large hypocenters there (Table 1). The fact that a large
earthquake produces a large gap suggests that small shocks generate small crevices,
which reduce the cohesion of the rock. Next, underground water percolates into the
crevices. Its expansion, contraction, and chemistry further reduce the cohesion. Friction
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