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Neural network - GIS model for developmental planning: A case study of Doon valley

Suju George, Ram Babu P., and Khanna P.
Director, CSSTE-AP (Affiliated to UN)
Dehra Dun

The Doon Valley is a distinct and unique ecosystem in the foothills of the Himalayas. The geological fragility and hydrological sensitivity of the Himalayan mountain system contribute to the ecological sensitivity of the Doon Valley ecosystem. The deterioration of this fragile ecosystem is aggravated by poverty-driven ecological degradation, in which resident population as well as migrants overexploited the forest, mineral and land resources to meet their short term needs at the cost of the long term equilibrium between environmental and societal systems. The boundaries of the valley are demarcated based on watershed and mountain ridges. The valley is further subdivided into five geographical subregions, viz. Vikasnagar, Sahaspur, Raipur, Doiwala and Tehri Garhwal. Subsequently, each subregion is further subdivided into plains and hills. For the purpose of the study, two time horizons have been chosen. The paper focusses on a consequence model. based on neural network and the usage of the same as a decision tool for evaluating developmental proposals for present and long term scenarios The long term scenario for the year 2021 AD aims at enhancing the quality of life levels that are equitable, while minimizing ecological loading and ensuring least environmental degradation. The study of existing scenario in the region involves estimation of the assimilative capacity of the environmental media, viz. air, noise, water, land and socio economic components of the environment and estimation of supportive capacity of resource endowment encompassing land, water, mineral, energy, biological, human and infrastructure resources. The supportive capacity studies have resulted in resource inventory of each planning zone collated from secondary as well as primary data. Besides, the data from remote sensing has also been analysed using Digital Image Processing and Geographical Information Systems. The study has also estimated supportive capacity dimensions such as developmental indices, man-land ratios, resource indices, amenity inaccessibility indices and emergy based ecological loading ratios. In the carrying capacity based planning for Doon Valley, some of the strategies advocated for reconciling developmental imperatives with carrying capacity are innovative technologies for enhanced material and energy affectivity of production and consumption, structural economic changes towards less resource intensive activities, substitution of resources, choice of mix of activities, change of life styles and preventive environmental management. The environmental management plans for the upkeep of the environment are the recommended interventions for the short term i.e.upto the 1997 AD. In order to identify the possible developmental scenarios for the year 2021 AD, the aspirations, preferences, interests and priorities of the groups consisting of planners, experts, interest groups, citizens are collated through Brain storming, Delphi sessions and SWOT analysis. The possible developmental scenarios are analysed for predicting the consequences, using a regional systems model based on neural networks technique. The criteria for selecting a preferred scenario and quality of life levels that are equitable, emergy based ecological loading ratios and environmental status degradation indices. The results of consequence analysis are presented in Table 1.

Carrying Capacity Indicators for different Development Scenarios in 2021 AD for the Subregions of Doon Valley Using consequence model based on neural network
Table 1. (will be prepared and loaded by end of April'99)

Preferred
A scenario selected from the four scenarios suggested by expert groups by analyzing resource endowment and limiting factors. Free and non-renewable emergy used in the economy ++ Ecological Loading Ratio = Emergy Produced in the economy ** Environment Status Degradation Index is calculated by normalizing the present level of sum of the indicators for status of environment of different components to one for each region separately. This index should only be used for comparison of environment status at different time horizons for the same region. *** The high value of environmental status degradation index for Doiwala and Tehri region shows the degradation of the environment from its present status which is relatively better than that of Raipur subregion. In the Doiwala subregion, all components of the environment, air, noise, water, land, solidwastes and biology degrade and the same is true with Tehri subregion. However, the Raipur region in which the environment status degradation is already alarming, would degrade further but relatively the degradation is not as much as in Doiwala and Tehri Garhwal subregions.